13 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

 CNBC:

Morgan Stanley economic indicator just suffered a record collapse

 

The Morgan Stanley Business Conditions Index fell by 32 points in June, to a level of 13 from a level of 45 in May. This drop is the largest one-month decline on record.

 

The 2008 SPX decline seemed to lag this indicator:
 

 

Rogerdodger Posted 04 June 2019

(October may not be fun for bulls...?)

 

Edited by Rogerdodger, 13 June 2019 - 10:52 PM.

[OEXCHAOS]

Commercial paper was telling us there was a problem back then.

[OEXCHAOS]

Check it out now.

 

[Waver]

Mark
The 2nd chart does not look clear. The line went back down which means back to less risk?

[12SPX]

Hmmmmm ya I guess the second chart looks ok but the first one looks just like the build to the start of 2008 to me.

[Rogerdodger]

Bond king rings alarm bell on recession...

 

Providing our call of the day,Jeffrey Gundlach predicted a 40% to 50% chance of a U.S. recession within the next six months and a 65% chance of that happening in the next 12 months, in a webcast to clients late Thursday, according to a roundup of his comments from Reuters and other media outlets. He said signs of a slowdown on the global economic front are also a worry.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 14 June 2019 - 08:54 AM.

[trioderob]

I have a thought on something here .

 

Just as there was talk that the Mexican tariffs were a farce with a deal being in the works already before the scare - perhaps the China talks and the summit meeting are a farce too.

 

what i mean is that perhaps its a "no deal " and boths sides know this with permanant structural changes taking place - such as relocating factories , redoing supply chains and redirecting goals for the "Made in China 2025" is an initiative to comprehensively upgrade Chinese industry.

 

I think the market is pricing in a trade deal or a "kick the can down the raod " event - not a "no deal" where  we will take our business somewhere else situation 

[LMF]

Gundlach is a guessing machine like a lot of others. Try the conference board LEI plot. And what it looked like in the last recession. Thats just One plot to watch of which there are many. Next would be the philly Fed state leading indexes map......see how that plot looked in the last recession. Look look look and dont stop doing what? Looking. You have to look using eyeballs. It also helps not to be color blind the way they design the plots. I really think thats the most important thing of all...,,

[da_cheif]

try one who never guesses and has a record to prove it   675 ono    watch the pie

[OEXCHAOS]

Mark
The 2nd chart does not look clear. The line went back down which means back to less risk?

 

They are demanding essentially no risk premium for Financial Commercial Paper, on balance. Back in 07-09, they wanted serious premium.