2 replies to this topic

[MikeyG]

Looking at the long end of the curve now around 2.5.

The market is coming to grip that people are not having as many children.

If our immigration was not so high in the US, we would be in total economic collapse as the TFR is now at 1.7 percent, well below the replacement level of 2.1.

Look at Japan, that is the US future unless people start having children. 10 year interest rate at 0 and a stock market that will never reach new highs.

I am still bullish here, but eventually there will be a total collapse due to the decline in births.

The whole thing is kind of ironic because people are having less children in large part to get ahead and make more money, but its going to lead to a total economic collapse eventually.

The 30 year is already telling us this.

[MikeyG]

There are great examples of the declining TFR leading to economic peril all over the world.

Look at Italy, they have had a declining population for 10 years and there stock market is down around 60 percent from the highs.

[Data]

There's very little treasury supply with the debt ceiling in place.  Also, the Fed starts buying 20 billion dollars a month.