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WHOA!!! Everybody Is Leaning The Wrong Way!


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#11 12SPX

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 09:32 AM

Lots of people think this is a big top, . Some cite the rate cuts in 2001 and 2007, it's all about context, not even remotely the same.

 

I highly recommend CiovaccoCapital updates, I think you won't find this work much anywhere else.

 

 

Well this was interesting can't believe I watched the whole thing.  Unfortunately in my view it has zero relevance for "todays" trading.  First off there is almost zero chance were going to see a rate cut today.  Secondly most of his charts market wise show it at or near lows.  We're 1% from old highs.  Thirdly, after the first two months of a cut the market was basically higher only 50% of the time.  Yes in the long run I agree we could see the market much higher after those first two months but for "today" I think its a flip of coin if the market rallies or not now.  After seeing this and after hearing just about everyone is bullish on here I'm going to think we may even see a sell off no matter what the Fed says.  In the present situation I think its a good day to sit back and see where the dust settles and then come back tomorrow to trade or sell some way out of the money options on both sides lol!!  



#12 12SPX

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 09:33 AM

How many here saw the crash coming in 2008? Just wondering...

I didn't I was on holidays at the time.  Think we all should have been weary anyhow being October and all though lol!!



#13 hhh

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 09:43 AM

 

How many here saw the crash coming in 2008? Just wondering...

I didn't I was on holidays at the time.  Think we all should have been weary anyhow being October and all though lol!!

 

I think you meant "wary" rather than disinterested ("weary.")



#14 12SPX

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 09:53 AM

whoops thanks lol!!



#15 Dex

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 02:18 PM

How many here saw the crash coming in 2008? Just wondering...

 
Hand raised.
 
Fib

Edited by Dex, 19 June 2019 - 02:20 PM.

"The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that, you've got it made. "
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#16 CLK

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Posted 20 June 2019 - 08:02 AM

 

Lots of people think this is a big top, . Some cite the rate cuts in 2001 and 2007, it's all about context, not even remotely the same.

 

I highly recommend CiovaccoCapital updates, I think you won't find this work much anywhere else.

 

 

Well this was interesting can't believe I watched the whole thing.  Unfortunately in my view it has zero relevance for "todays" trading.  First off there is almost zero chance were going to see a rate cut today.  Secondly most of his charts market wise show it at or near lows.  We're 1% from old highs.  Thirdly, after the first two months of a cut the market was basically higher only 50% of the time.  Yes in the long run I agree we could see the market much higher after those first two months but for "today" I think its a flip of coin if the market rallies or not now.  After seeing this and after hearing just about everyone is bullish on here I'm going to think we may even see a sell off no matter what the Fed says.  In the present situation I think its a good day to sit back and see where the dust settles and then come back tomorrow to trade or sell some way out of the money options on both sides lol!!  

 

 

 

f you are selling close dated contracts then you are only picking up pennies per contract which means you have to sell 100's of them, and few brokers are going to allow that unless you have millions in your account. If you are selling monthly or longer, then you will lose money if the market moves against you, only hope then is expiration out of the money. If you are selling strangles, better hope the market goes sideways.

 

 

This video was mainly about rate cuts, the other videos cover the market after the breadth thrust what happened next. All the relevant datas suggests the market will be up going forward and up 25% next year.


Edited by CLK, 20 June 2019 - 08:05 AM.


#17 CLK

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Posted 20 June 2019 - 08:34 AM

So far, from what I have found, the best trade is buying SPX calls 6-9 months out with the long term trend, best to add on dips and corrections. Shorter dated contracts don't give you enough time for the trend to work.

If you trade daily or weekly, that is trying to micro time the market, it can't be done, imo.


Edited by CLK, 20 June 2019 - 08:34 AM.