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SPX hits new high - Start Worrying


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#11 dTraderB

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Posted 22 June 2019 - 10:40 AM

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NYSE Top and Bottom Finder - Looking for the extreme moves - too Bearish or Too Bullish possible reversals - Bottoms are a lot easier than tops to spot.

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3:43 AM - 22 Jun 


#12 dTraderB

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Posted 22 June 2019 - 10:43 AM

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AAII Sentiment - Bulls 30% Bears 32% - Clueless 38% - sounds about right for this crazy market based on rhetoric from Trump or the Fed.

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3:17 AM - 22 Jun 


#13 dTraderB

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Posted 22 June 2019 - 10:45 AM

 

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NYSE Unweighted Index looks nothing like the cumulative a/d line.

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8:29 AM - 22 Jun 


#14 dTraderB

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Posted 22 June 2019 - 10:46 AM

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Remember when Fridays were always green? Since the market peaked in early May there have been 2 green Fridays and 5 red ones.

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SPX

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8:10 AM - 22 Jun 
 


#15 dTraderB

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Posted 22 June 2019 - 10:51 AM

One of the Unofficial official voices of the Chinese Govt on Twitter

 

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The US blacklisted 5 more Chinese companies, a blow to the atmosphere of China-US Osaka summit. Many Chinese now think the Trump administration is not trustful. A deal may be useless even if it is reached. The latest move of US government will strengthen such a view.

8:43 AM - 22 Jun 
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Chinese side is concerned about the fairness of a trade deal. The most important part is the US side must remove all newly imposed tariffs since the trade war. Until now, what I've learned is China won't accept a deal that the US keeps part of the tariffs.

8:36 AM - 21 Jun 

 



#16 dTraderB

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Posted 23 June 2019 - 06:53 AM

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7:23 AM - 22 Jun 2019


#17 dTraderB

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Posted 23 June 2019 - 06:55 AM

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Utilities all time high, problem is the reversal in interest rates - Between a rock and a hard place with being a defensive index generally, but interest rates usually Trumping everything. Possible Hanging Man Top of Friday at the all time highs??? Bull Trap??? I sold too soon

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2:58 AM - 23 Jun 2019


#18 dTraderB

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Posted 23 June 2019 - 06:58 AM

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WHOA. $SPX is currently up +7.7% for the month of June, which would be the 6th best June ever. But do you really want to join this list?

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With returns for the rest of the year:

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11:28 AM - 22 Jun 2019


#19 dTraderB

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Posted 23 June 2019 - 07:00 AM

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$SPX Low probably rising wedge at resistance

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7:04 AM - 22 Jun 2019
 
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#20 tsharp

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Posted 23 June 2019 - 11:43 AM

Not an EW fan but I listen; may or may not agree:

 

From one of the few EWavers I follow:

 

"Well, the bounce turning into a full fledged rally and it did so quickly. In the process the S&P 500 delivered some impressive price and breadth patterns along the way. For example:

 

Bullish Developments

  • Yesterday’s (Tuesday, June 4) rally was supported by exceptional breadth, with 81.48% of NYSE stocks advancing. In addition to Tuesday’s strength, Monday saw more stocks advancing (65.03%) despite a 6-point loss. This is generally a positive for stocks.” - June 5, Profit Radar Report
  • Sunday’s PRR showed the spike in new 52-week highs (116 for the S&P 500). Defensive sectors (like staples, utilities, and health care) saw about twice as many new highs as non defensive sectors. Some may interpret this as a bearish ‘risk off’ rally, but historically that’s not been the case." - June 12, Profit Radar Report
  • Retail investors polled by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) are unusually bearish (below 30% bulls for 5 consecutive weeks). When this crowd has been this bearish during a bull market, the S&P 500 was higher 3 months later every time." - June 16, Profit Radar Report
  • "By one measure, hedge funds have the smallest exposure to equities since 2013. This is highly unusual considering that the S&P 500 is only 2% from its all-time high. Since 2009, when hedge funds were this bearish, the S&P 500 was higher 3 months later 90% of the time.” - June 16, Profit Radar Report
  • My favorite liquidity indicator reached new all-time highs this week. Since the beginning of this bull market in 2009, the NYC a/d line reached new all-time highs before the S&P 500 eight other times. On average, it took the S&P 45 days to reach a new high or all-time high (the 2007 all-time high was not exceeded until April 10, 2013). 1 year later, the S&P 500 was higher every time. 2, 3, 6 months later, the S&P was higher 7 out of 8 times.” - June 16, Profit Radar Report

Bearish Factors

 

The Elliott Wave Theory pattern is still not distinctly bullish. I published four different scenarios in the June 2 Profit Radar Report. The most bearish one was eliminated on June 5. Two of the three remaining ones projected new all-time highs, and the third allowed for new all-time highs.

 

Shown below is one of the 3 possible scenarios (published in the June 2 Profit Radar Report). The second one has a trajectory similar to this one, and the third one is much more bullish.

 

 

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Short-term Factors

 

As the first chart shows, RSI-2 is over-bought and RSI-35 is lagging, so technical indicators allow for some short-term risk. The May all-time high should provide some resistance, but a rally towards and into 3,000 is possible.

 

I’ll be watching the next inflection zone to see if the bullish developments outlined above will overpower the lack of a clearly bullish Elliott Wave Theory pattern.

 

Read more at https://www.ispyetf.com

 

He's on the right track, though Wave-FIVE goes much higher... chart published initially on 2.15.19:

 

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