NYSE Top and Bottom Finder - Looking for the extreme moves - too Bearish or Too Bullish possible reversals - Bottoms are a lot easier than tops to spot.
SPX hits new high - Start Worrying
#11
Posted 22 June 2019 - 10:40 AM
#12
Posted 22 June 2019 - 10:43 AM
AAII Sentiment - Bulls 30% Bears 32% - Clueless 38% - sounds about right for this crazy market based on rhetoric from Trump or the Fed.
#15
Posted 22 June 2019 - 10:51 AM
One of the Unofficial official voices of the Chinese Govt on Twitter
The US blacklisted 5 more Chinese companies, a blow to the atmosphere of China-US Osaka summit. Many Chinese now think the Trump administration is not trustful. A deal may be useless even if it is reached. The latest move of US government will strengthen such a view.
Chinese side is concerned about the fairness of a trade deal. The most important part is the US side must remove all newly imposed tariffs since the trade war. Until now, what I've learned is China won't accept a deal that the US keeps part of the tariffs.
#17
Posted 23 June 2019 - 06:55 AM
Utilities all time high, problem is the reversal in interest rates - Between a rock and a hard place with being a defensive index generally, but interest rates usually Trumping everything. Possible Hanging Man Top of Friday at the all time highs??? Bull Trap??? I sold too soon
#20
Posted 23 June 2019 - 11:43 AM
Not an EW fan but I listen; may or may not agree:
From one of the few EWavers I follow:
"Well, the bounce turning into a full fledged rally and it did so quickly. In the process the S&P 500 delivered some impressive price and breadth patterns along the way. For example:
Bullish Developments
- “Yesterday’s (Tuesday, June 4) rally was supported by exceptional breadth, with 81.48% of NYSE stocks advancing. In addition to Tuesday’s strength, Monday saw more stocks advancing (65.03%) despite a 6-point loss. This is generally a positive for stocks.” - June 5, Profit Radar Report
- “Sunday’s PRR showed the spike in new 52-week highs (116 for the S&P 500). Defensive sectors (like staples, utilities, and health care) saw about twice as many new highs as non defensive sectors. Some may interpret this as a bearish ‘risk off’ rally, but historically that’s not been the case." - June 12, Profit Radar Report
- “Retail investors polled by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) are unusually bearish (below 30% bulls for 5 consecutive weeks). When this crowd has been this bearish during a bull market, the S&P 500 was higher 3 months later every time." - June 16, Profit Radar Report
- "By one measure, hedge funds have the smallest exposure to equities since 2013. This is highly unusual considering that the S&P 500 is only 2% from its all-time high. Since 2009, when hedge funds were this bearish, the S&P 500 was higher 3 months later 90% of the time.” - June 16, Profit Radar Report
- “My favorite liquidity indicator reached new all-time highs this week. Since the beginning of this bull market in 2009, the NYC a/d line reached new all-time highs before the S&P 500 eight other times. On average, it took the S&P 45 days to reach a new high or all-time high (the 2007 all-time high was not exceeded until April 10, 2013). 1 year later, the S&P 500 was higher every time. 2, 3, 6 months later, the S&P was higher 7 out of 8 times.” - June 16, Profit Radar Report
Bearish Factors
The Elliott Wave Theory pattern is still not distinctly bullish. I published four different scenarios in the June 2 Profit Radar Report. The most bearish one was eliminated on June 5. Two of the three remaining ones projected new all-time highs, and the third allowed for new all-time highs.
Shown below is one of the 3 possible scenarios (published in the June 2 Profit Radar Report). The second one has a trajectory similar to this one, and the third one is much more bullish.
Short-term Factors
As the first chart shows, RSI-2 is over-bought and RSI-35 is lagging, so technical indicators allow for some short-term risk. The May all-time high should provide some resistance, but a rally towards and into 3,000 is possible.
I’ll be watching the next inflection zone to see if the bullish developments outlined above will overpower the lack of a clearly bullish Elliott Wave Theory pattern.
Read more at https://www.ispyetf.com
He's on the right track, though Wave-FIVE goes much higher... chart published initially on 2.15.19: