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SPX hits new high - Start Worrying


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#21 CLK

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Posted 23 June 2019 - 12:24 PM

 

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AAII Sentiment - Bulls 30% Bears 32% - Clueless 38% - sounds about right for this crazy market based on rhetoric from Trump or the Fed.

D9qIyJ8X4AA_GLc.png
3:17 AM - 22 Jun 

 

 

 

 

I think you need way more bulls to mark a top, I doubt this is another top, probably breaks out in July and runs.


Edited by CLK, 23 June 2019 - 12:28 PM.


#22 tsharp

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Posted 23 June 2019 - 12:53 PM

Cyclically, the US markets should continue higher into 2032-33... twt.

 

 

200-Years-of-Bull-Bear-Cycles.jpg

 

Chart first published on 4.26.19:

 

SPX-W-4-26-19-Cycles.jpg



#23 tsharp

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Posted 23 June 2019 - 01:38 PM

Finally, a re-post of this SPX monthly chart from 4.28.19 with potential Wave-FIVE targets:

 

SPX-M-4-28-19.jpg



#24 fib_1618

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Posted 23 June 2019 - 04:08 PM

  Fib, the advance/decline data is that all equal weighted you look at not just FANG stocks?  Does it also include up and down volume?  

 

We do both raw and ratio adjusted A/D and U/D lines....the more data you have to work with, the better the analytical benefit.

 

I've been posting this cumulative chart data for over 15 years now...you can find it at Technical Watch with the exclusive BETS indicator.

 

Here's this week's review including the BETS recommended strategy: http://tinyurl.com/y2ny6um5

 

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#25 dTraderB

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Posted 23 June 2019 - 07:24 PM

Morgan Stanley's analysis of Trump - Xi meeting: a pause that refreshes, lower tensions, market rally, but it is a set-up to sell risk

 

:...So as we enter this week, there seems good reason to expect that the G20 will result in a tariff ‘pause’, affording both sides a defined period of time to get negotiations back on track before resorting to further tariff escalation.

But investors beware: while a pause is better than escalation, it won’t refresh the economy enough to forestall a challenging path for risk assets. A pause, particularly one that comes without preconditions and follows a period of heated rhetoric, would be positive, signalling that both sides want to avoid further economic damage. If it coincides with Fed dovishness, a pause could boost investor sentiment and risk asset prices in the short term. However, we’d view this more as a set-up to sell risk than a catalyst to turn more bullish. Consider the following:

https://www.zerohedg...g-set-sell-risk



#26 dTraderB

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Posted 23 June 2019 - 07:36 PM

Potential market movers: 

POWELL speaks on Tuesday 

BULLARD who voted to cut rates also speaks on the same day, as is another FED head, Williams.

 

TRUMP meets XI on Friday or Saturday....who is going LONG or SHORT into the weekend? 

 

https://www.investin...is-week-1905006

 



#27 Darris

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Posted 23 June 2019 - 07:59 PM

Anybody still peak at the old TSP sentiment weekly posting?  5.38 bulls to bears for the upcoming week.  Last time that high was at the Quad witch in Dec 2014, and highest ever I believe, but all Decembers are high.

 

https://www.tsptalk.com/sentiment.php

 

Week of: Bulls Bears
06/30/14 48% 37%
06/23/14 60% 26%
06/16/14 46% 39%
06/09/14 56% 33%
06/02/14 52% 32%
05/26/14 47% 35%
05/19/14 39% 45%
05/12/14 41% 44%
05/05/14 50% 35%
04/28/14 53% 31%
04/21/14 59% 32%
04/14/14 56% 33%
04/07/14 60% 32%
03/31/14 44% 48%
03/24/14 52% 37%
03/17/14 45% 45%
03/10/14 58% 31%
03/03/14 54% 35%
02/24/14 47% 44%
02/17/14 51% 37%
02/10/14 39% 48%
02/03/14 49% 40%
01/27/14 48% 41%
01/20/14 61% 30%
01/13/14 55% 33%
01/06/14 52% 40%
12/30/13 71% 19%
12/23/13 77% 20%
12/16/13 54% 37%
12/09/13 53% 37%
12/02/13 62% 29%
11/25/13 59% 30%
11/18/13 64% 26%
11/11/13 55% 36%
11/04/13 53% 35%
10/28/13 58% 34%
10/21/13 58% 30%
10/14/13 41% 50%
10/07/13 29% 66%
09/30/13 40% 48%
09/23/13 57% 35%
09/16/13 50% 40%
09/09/13 46% 42%
09/03/13 37% 54%
08/26/13 40% 52%
08/19/13 30% 61%
08/12/13 42% 45%
08/05/13 55% 38%
07/29/13 42% 50%
07/22/13 55% 34%
07/15/13 58% 32%
07/08/13 44% 45%
07/01/13 55% 36%
06/24/13 29% 63%
06/17/13 36% 55%
06/10/13 42% 50%
06/03/13 43% 46%
05/28/13 43% 48%
05/20/13 51% 41%
05/13/13 47% 43%
05/06/13 43% 48%
04/29/13 49% 38%
04/22/13 32% 59%
04/15/13 49% 40%
04/08/13 35% 56%
04/01/13 46% 43%
03/25/13 40% 50%
03/18/13 49% 40%
03/11/13 50% 39%
03/04/13 45% 48%
02/25/13 29% 63%
02/19/13 41% 48%
02/11/13 36% 52%
02/04/13 43% 46%
01/28/13 53% 37%
01/22/13 50% 38%
01/14/13 58% 30%
01/07/13 60% 30%
12/31/12 39% 52%
12/24/12 57% 33%
12/17/12 49% 42%
12/10/12 42% 46%
12/03/12 53% 35%
11/26/12 47% 42%
11/19/12 34% 59%
11/12/12 37% 53%
11/05/12 60% 30%
10/29/12 49% 40%
10/22/12 50% 40%
10/15/12 45% 45%
10/08/12 63% 26%
10/01/12 48% 41%
09/24/12 44% 47%
09/17/12 44% 46%
09/10/12 45% 44%
09/04/12 37% 52%
08/27/12 36% 55%
08/20/12 45% 45%
08/13/12 36% 52%
08/06/12 30% 60%
07/30/12 50% 41%
07/23/12 48% 42%
07/16/12 34% 55%
07/09/12 45% 46%
07/02/12 38% 52%
06/25/12 29% 59%
06/18/12 34% 54%
06/11/12 49% 42%
06/04/12 32% 61%
05/28/12 42% 50%
05/21/12 28% 65%
05/14/12 41% 51%
05/07/12 36% 55%
04/30/12 42% 36%
04/23/12 40% 45%
04/16/12 63% 26%
04/09/12 41% 50%
04/02/12 51% 40%
03/26/12 35% 56%
03/19/12 52% 38%
03/12/12 49% 40%
03/05/12 54% 36%
02/27/12 48% 41%
02/21/12 47% 43%
02/13/12 49% 42%
02/06/12 50% 42%
01/30/12 47% 43%
01/23/12 49% 42%
01/17/12 56% 35%
01/09/12 47% 39%
01/03/12 45% 40%
12/26/11 71% 19%
12/19/11 52% 38%
12/12/11 47% 41%
12/05/11 55% 33%
11/28/11 44% 49%
11/21/11 49% 39%
11/14/11 45% 43%
11/07/11 57% 33%
10/31/11 64% 26%
10/24/11 40% 49%
10/17/11 42% 46%
10/10/11 44% 44%
10/03/11 35% 53%
09/26/11 29% 63%
09/19/11 42% 43%
09/12/11 43% 47%
09/06/11 39% 50%
08/29/11 42% 44%
08/22/11 27% 65%
08/15/11 51% 41%
08/08/11 33% 58%
08/01/11 36% 55%
07/25/11 54% 34%
07/18/11 34% 52%
07/11/11 52% 36%
07/05/11 50% 37%
06/27/11 31% 59%
06/20/11 33% 56%
06/13/11 41% 48%
06/06/11 31% 56%
05/30/11 45% 39%
05/23/11 50% 35%
05/16/11 46% 39%
05/09/11 38% 45%
05/02/11 55% 30%
04/25/11 54% 30%
04/18/11 45% 41%
04/11/11 44% 41%
04/04/11 60% 29%
03/28/11 52% 34%
03/21/11 39% 52%
03/14/11 33% 56%
03/07/11 55% 32%
02/28/11 38% 52%
02/22/11 50% 37%
02/14/11 44% 42%
02/07/11 38% 45%
01/31/11 53% 32%
01/24/11 39% 52%
01/17/11 49% 39%
01/10/11 52% 33%
01/03/11 46% 39%
12/27/10 64% 20%
12/20/10 56% 32%
12/13/10 58% 30%
12/06/10 59% 31%
11/29/10 41% 50%
11/22/10 55% 35%
11/15/10 57% 34%
11/08/10 70% 23%
11/01/10 55% 35%
10/25/10 54% 36%
10/18/10 51% 36%
10/11/10 47% 38%
10/04/10 46% 43%
09/27/10 35% 55%
09/20/10 37% 52%
09/13/10 44% 43%
09/07/10 38% 53%
08/30/10 29% 60%
08/23/10 38% 48%
08/16/10 29% 63%
08/09/10 53% 33%
08/02/10 43% 41%
07/26/10 43% 44%
07/19/10 43% 43%
07/12/10 54% 37%
07/06/10 33% 58%
06/28/10 34% 54%
06/21/10 50% 40%
06/14/10 49% 40%
06/07/10 50% 42%
06/01/10 51% 43%
05/24/10 25% 66%
05/17/10 51% 35%
05/10/10 36% 54%
05/03/10 64% 25%
04/26/10 47% 40%
04/19/10 61% 29%
04/12/10 50% 38%
04/05/10 56% 34%
03/29/10 45% 43%
03/22/10 53% 36%
03/15/10 56% 31%
03/08/10 51% 35%
03/01/10 46% 39%
02/22/10 50% 38%
02/16/10 48% 42%
02/08/10 36% 54%
02/01/10 41% 46%
01/25/10 43% 47%
01/19/10 58% 25%
01/11/10 49% 38%
01/04/10 49% 39%
12/28/09 66% 20%
12/21/09 63% 26%
12/14/09 62% 28%
12/07/09 58% 28%
11/30/09 50% 36%
11/23/09 44% 45%
11/16/09 49% 39%
11/09/09 54% 34%
11/02/09 37% 49%
10/26/09 46% 41%
10/19/09 54% 32%
10/12/09 55% 34%
10/05/09 37% 50%
09/28/09 39% 49%
09/21/09 55% 35%
09/14/09 51% 34%
09/08/09 40% 45%
08/31/09 44% 41%
08/24/09 50% 37%
08/17/09 51% 35%
08/10/09 47% 42%
08/03/09 48% 40%
07/27/09 51% 37%
07/20/09 46% 44%
07/13/09 33% 53%
07/06/09 40% 43%
06/29/09 36% 54%
06/22/09 38% 48%
06/15/09 49% 38%
06/08/09 52% 34%
06/01/09 44% 41%
05/26/09 37% 53%
05/18/09 34% 56%
05/11/09 47% 42%
05/04/09 43% 45%
04/27/09 34% 51%
04/20/09 38% 45%
04/13/09 35% 47%
04/06/09 49% 35%
03/30/09 47% 37%
03/23/09 34% 52%
03/16/09 36% 48%
03/09/09 26% 64%
03/02/09 34% 55%
02/23/09 27% 60%
02/17/09 34% 51%
02/09/09 34% 51%
02/02/09 26% 58%
01/26/09 37% 50%
01/20/09 35% 53%
01/12/09 32% 52%
01/05/09 45% 42%
01/02/09 34% 50%
12/29/08 34% 50%
12/22/08 47% 37%
12/15/08 29% 54%
12/08/08 29% 54%
12/01/08 38% 46%
11/24/08 29% 61%
11/17/08 31% 58%
11/10/08 28% 60%
11/03/08 48% 36%
10/27/08 27% 58%
10/20/08 30% 56%
10/13/08 35% 55%
10/06/08 38% 47%
09/29/08 41% 44%
09/22/08 36% 55%
09/15/08 38% 55%
09/08/08 31% 55%
09/02/08 43% 43%
08/25/08 33% 53%
08/18/08 33% 49%
08/11/08 38% 43%
08/04/08 40% 44%
07/28/08 39% 49%
07/21/08 46% 41%
07/14/08 36% 55%
07/07/08 29% 61%
06/30/08 28% 61%
06/23/08 32% 56%
06/16/08 29% 62%
06/09/08 47% 41%
06/02/08 44% 40%
05/27/08 31% 57%
05/19/08 44% 38%
05/12/08 38% 51%
05/05/08 44% 39%
04/28/08 44% 44%
04/21/08 49% 39%
04/14/08 38% 48%
04/07/08 44% 43%
03/31/08 43% 46%
03/24/08 35% 54%
03/17/08 30% 58%
03/10/08 26% 61%
03/03/08 34% 53%
02/25/08 28% 53%
02/18/08 43% 44%
02/11/08 31% 56%
02/04/08 40% 48%
01/28/08 43% 41%
01/21/08 26% 65%
01/14/08 34% 52%
01/07/08 35% 53%
12/31/07 43% 43%
12/24/07 41% 43%
12/17/07 43% 42%
12/10/07 69% 17%
12/03/07 51% 33%
11/26/07 34% 53%
11/19/07 43% 43%
11/12/07 33% 52%
11/05/07 41% 45%
10/29/07 50% 33%
10/22/07 48% 37%
10/15/07 57% 28%
10/08/07 61% 25%
10/01/07 59% 25%
09/24/07 51% 33%
09/17/07 52% 33%
09/10/07 45% 37%
09/04/07 51% 32%
08/27/07 59% 27%
08/20/07 37% 49%
08/13/07 52% 32%
08/06/07 48% 34%
07/30/07 45% 41%
07/23/07 57% 28%
07/16/07 54% 31%
07/09/07 47% 36%
07/02/07 61% 23%
06/25/07 46% 37%
06/18/07 52% 30%
06/11/07 46% 38%
06/04/07 66% 18%
05/29/07 46% 36%
05/21/07 46% 37%
05/14/07 45% 39%
05/07/07 46% 36%
04/30/07 59% 24%
04/23/07 49% 34%
04/16/07 45% 34%
04/09/07 63% 20%
04/02/07 44% 37%
03/26/07 54% 26%
03/19/07 39% 40%
03/12/07 44% 36%
03/05/07 38% 42%
02/26/07 56% 22%
02/20/07 56% 26%
02/12/07 56% 22%
02/05/07 51% 30%
01/29/07 44% 35%
01/22/07 40% 38%
01/16/07 51% 30%
01/08/07 54% 30%
01/02/07 45% 28%
12/26/06 46% 32%
12/18/06 69% 14%
12/11/06 58% 18%
12/04/06 56% 24%
11/27/06 48% 29%
11/20/06 56% 26%
11/13/06 47% 29%
11/06/06 37% 40%
10/30/06 53% 31%
10/23/06 49% 32%
10/16/06 59% 28%
10/10/06 43% 45%
10/02/06 46% 38%
09/25/06 45% 39%
09/18/06 44% 32%
09/11/06 25% 54%
09/05/06 41% 42%
08/28/06 36% 29%
08/21/06 42% 30%
08/14/06 49% 31%
08/07/06 54% 22%
07/31/06 51% 25%
07/24/06 35% 46%
07/17/06 60% 27%
07/10/06 56% 24%
07/03/06 66% 15%
06/26/06 54% 23%
06/19/06 58% 23%
06/12/06 41% 39%
06/05/06 55% 30%
05/30/06 66% 18%
05/22/06 40% 43%
05/15/06 46% 36%
05/08/06 61% 25%
05/01/06 56% 25%
04/24/06 52% 30%
04/17/06 48% 31%
04/10/06 54% 30%
04/03/06 47% 30%
03/27/06 49% 29%
03/20/06 52% 29%
03/13/06 41% 39%
03/06/06 52% 25%
02/27/06 58% 24%
02/21/06 52% 26%
02/13/06 39% 41%
02/06/06 34% 45%
01/30/06 56% 24%
01/23/06 40% 41%
01/17/06 54% 27%
01/09/06 60% 19%
01/03/06 n/a n/a
12/27/05 60% 20%
12/19/05 61% 14%
12/12/05 52% 20%
12/05/05 61% 22%
11/28/05 53% 33%
11/21/05 69% 19%
11/14/05 62% 22%
11/07/05 71% 15%
10/31/05 60% 28%
10/24/05 52% 26%
10/17/05 49% 34%
10/10/05 37% 46%
10/03/05 n/a n/a
09/26/05 34% 45%
09/19/05 22% 54%
09/12/05 45% 37%
09/06/05 27% 58%
08/29/05 24% 44%
08/22/05 35% 46%
08/15/05 39% 41%
08/08/05 26% 58%
08/01/05 56% 29%
07/25/05 47% 34%
07/18/05 34% 46%
07/11/05 41% 35%
07/05/05 42% 29%
06/27/05 16% 63%
06/20/05 30% 50%
06/13/05 28% 45%


#28 dTraderB

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 06:28 AM

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Rogue S&P 500 on an end of quarter mission. Ignoring the Yen??? So will hedge funds now short the markets at the highs?? Interesting move here, like no other???

D90FMpiX4AEQjlr.jpg
1:37 AM - 24 Jun 
 @ThinkTankCharts
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Rogue S&P 500 on an end of quarter mission. Ignoring the Yen??? So will hedge funds now short the markets at the highs?? Interesting move here, like no other???

D90FMpiX4AEQjlr.jpg
1:37 AM - 24 Jun 


#29 dTraderB

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 06:34 AM

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All aboard the gold train 1f682.png$GLD took in more than $1.5 billion on Friday, its largest 1-day take ever. Other hauls of more than $1 bln in a day were...iffy.

D9q1l7cXoAA_7Cc.jpg
6:32 AM - 22 Jun 


#30 dTraderB

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 06:37 AM

You may discern minor divergences

 

McClellanOsc_568.gif

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

 

detailed charts here:

https://www.marketin...llan-oscillator