Member
Posted 24 June 2019 - 05:17 PM
Not sure the reliability of these numbers but that is not what I have seen on a few web site for instance....
And the general tone suggest this one is more correct. And IF this is Correct then Expecting a building top is not out of the question. Gold and bonds are not through the roof because everything is roses and under control in la la land. I think they are sending a signal about the second shoe about to drop.
https://www.tsptalk.com/sentiment.php
Member
Posted 24 June 2019 - 07:42 PM
Not sure the reliability of these numbers but that is not what I have seen on a few web site for instance....
And the general tone suggest this one is more correct. And IF this is Correct then Expecting a building top is not out of the question. Gold and bonds are not through the roof because everything is roses and under control in la la land. I think they are sending a signal about the second shoe about to drop.
https://www.tsptalk.com/sentiment.php
watch the sky spooz n gold.... bonds on the trap door to hell
Member
Posted 24 June 2019 - 10:59 PM
Edited by redfoliage2, 24 June 2019 - 11:02 PM.
Member
Posted 25 June 2019 - 06:40 AM
A true sentiment is told by the actual prices. Currently SPX is at new high that reflects a true bullish sentiment. Its the votes from traders and MMs.
>A true sentiment is told by the actual prices.< wrong....if u were right then there would be a crowd at the top of K2 eh....
Mark S. Young
Posted 25 June 2019 - 08:48 AM
TSP is typically pretty good, but they have a new voting system. I do not know if that has affected things. I suspect not, but you can't ever be sure in this game.
Generally, though, I don't read more than a weeks worth of validity to TSP sentiment signals.
Mark S Young
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Member
Posted 25 June 2019 - 06:19 PM
No, Agreed but the one week is all we are looking for!
More calls than puts bought today... Hmmm That means the swing short I called from 2955 will drag into tomorrow. I expect a shot down and reversal. Next week is down
Member
Posted 25 June 2019 - 11:13 PM
A true sentiment is told by the actual prices. Currently SPX is at new high that reflects a true bullish sentiment. Its the votes from traders and MMs.
The actual prices represent completed transactions of the moment the result of open market price discovery.
Most trades these days originate from computer models that have unsentimental constructs. As far as I know no one is polling computers.
Individual traders are more intuitive and impulsive so their opinions are closer to what the public may think and their opinions end up in sentiment polls.
The various sentiment measurements may or may not agree with price at any time but the deviation of sentiment from the price is very valuable information because it reveals people's expectations and suggests to what degree people may be invested at that phase of the market or are their expectations reasonable or not.
Often the prices just oscillate but at times there is an element of surprise that triggers a breakout move. One of the few edges in trading is if one can figure out how to get on a move near inception, at the beginning of reversals.
More often then not in these situations sentiment was lopsided and created conditions for the element of surprise.
The person who read sentiment correctly (and using technical tools like divergence and volume analysis etc) may have profited from the move.
Regards,
f&d
