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JULY 4th seasonal rally? Then DOWN again....


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#11 dTraderB

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Posted 27 June 2019 - 06:14 AM

Basically, CHINA says "let us go back to where we were before there was a Trade War and let us start to talk again from that point"

 

That's why the market tanked, then rose a bit, because people finally realized that the Chinese were playing games, their "proposal" was a joke, and there was no hope of US accepting that, BUT there is now a basis for talking, Trump can relent on some or all tariffs etc, and the most likely outcome is they agree on a few minor issues and decide to resume talks. That will be cause for a big rally since it kicks the Trade War can down the road, maybe real far down the road, like until after 2020 election.

 

DOW seems to have a bigger problem this morning with BA down about 4% (about 100 DOW points)

 

Dow futures turn lower as investors focus on US-China trade and ...
CNBC-45 minutes ago
Dow futures turned lower Thursday morning, as investors looked to the two largest economies amid concerns over protracted trade war. Shares of Boeing ...


#12 redfoliage2

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Posted 27 June 2019 - 07:31 AM

If not be too surprised if Trump walks out during his meeting with Xi .....,....

#13 dTraderB

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Posted 27 June 2019 - 09:17 AM

If not be too surprised if Trump walks out during his meeting with Xi .....,....

 

I don't expect that but he is an unpredictable guy, to say the least

More likely, he will walk back tariffs in future, even roll back a bit, and agree to resume talks.

 

Market will love  that, kick it down the road

 

Chinese will gladly agree since they would have gained more and they know there is an election clock ticking in the US

They have no such restriction!



#14 dTraderB

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Posted 27 June 2019 - 09:18 AM

Looking for a rally until end of next week

 

If it does not come then the decline will be swift and huge



#15 dTraderB

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Posted 27 June 2019 - 09:19 AM

Want to buy volatility until end of next week, preferably VXX with a 24 handle or lower



#16 Darris

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Posted 27 June 2019 - 09:44 AM

Market preparing for massive volume day tomorrow with Russell's reconstitution.  2.5B+ on RUT, 3B+ on Naz, and 4.5B+ on NYSE.



#17 dTraderB

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Posted 27 June 2019 - 10:19 AM

GOLDMAN so bearish? 

 

"crash talk"? 

 

From ZEROHEDGE:

 

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Goldman Warns Risk Of Market Crash Is Highest Since The Financial Crisis, Nearing 60%

As the Goldman analyst writes, "valuations of risky assets have increased materially YTD" just in case anyone has failed to notice. This, contrary to what one may hear on CNBC is very troubling, because as the Goldman report notes, "purely based on elevated equity valuations, as measured by the S&P 500 Shiller P/E, and current growth, according to our US Current Activity Indicator (CAI), the risk of an equity drawdown of more than 10%", i.e. a sharp market drop, or for lack of a better word, crash, "is the highest since the GFC."

Indeed, as shown in the chart below, the risk of a market crash in the next 12 months is now well above 50% (it is approaching 60%), and the highest level since the global financial crisis, when it hit 90%.

https://www.zerohedg...isis-nearing-60



#18 dTraderB

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Posted 27 June 2019 - 10:20 AM

No sooner than I posted the above and ES Futures crashed a massive  FIVE POINTS!  and then rebounds! 



#19 dTraderB

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Posted 27 June 2019 - 10:20 AM

Market preparing for massive volume day tomorrow with Russell's reconstitution.  2.5B+ on RUT, 3B+ on Naz, and 4.5B+ on NYSE.

 

thanks for that info

 

also end of Q2



#20 dTraderB

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Posted 27 June 2019 - 10:31 AM

getting confused out there in OSAKA.... expect more of this for the next 48 hours or more

 

  1. KUDLOW: U.S. MAY MOVE AHEAD ON ADDITIONAL CHINA TARIFFS

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    UNLIKELY U.S. WOULD AGREE TO LIFT RESTRICTIONS ON HUAWEI - RTRS

    0 replies3 retweets8 likes
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    Stocks Stumble After Kudlow Warns On Additional China Tariffs