Most of the investing public is running scared from shares of China electric car maker Nio Inc (NIO). However, after falling from a 52 week high of $13.80 to its current $2.58, investors may want to take a second speculative look. China stimulus is getting into the system and more is coming. In fact, China will be forced to compete with lower interest rates and additional stimulus from the European Central Bank, Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan. The government looks at electric cars as essential for the future power of China by eliminating smog in the major cities. Car makes like NIO will see additional help and support from the Chinese government. While deliveries have fallen lately, that is likely within a month or two of changing as the stimulus kicks in.
The trade deal, while it may go on for a little longer, will end. The end date will likely be prior to the 2020 elections. At 52 week lows, any hint of a cease fire or agreement between the United States and China will send shorts running. President Trump needs a win going into the election and a deal with China that stimulates the economy might be the one thing that could help him win (and he knows it).
On a technical basis, NIO Inc has already made a pivot low on June 14th at $2.35. After that low, the stock ran over $3.00 and is currently in a classic bull retrace. In addition, technical metrics like the RSI and MACD are showing positive divergences, signaling further upside is likely. The stock is still oversold on a monthly and weekly basis signaling there is still upside to go. I have a technical target in the next couple months of $4.35. That is a potential upside move of 70%. Hedge funds continue to hold large positions with a long term view. In the last two weeks, sellers have started to fade with volume becoming lighter while large block buyers have increased.
Please note, this is a speculative call on a small/mid cap stock. Any position should be small and part of a diversified portfolio.
Gareth Soloway
Disclosure: Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway holds a long position in NIO Inc (NIO)
