11 replies to this topic

[CLK]

They don't know what they are talking about. 

 

From 2009 QQQ went from 23 to 196, 8.5x gain. TQQQ went up 35x with dividends.

 

 

 

https://www.splithistory.com/tqqq/

[bln]

You are cherry picking a bull market time period, so it is an invalid point for buy and hold. If you invest long term over 20 years you need to also count of all the bear markets where Nasdaq 100 did drop -60%

[CLK]

You are cherry picking a bull market time period, so it is an invalid point for buy and hold. If you invest long term over 20 years you need to also count of all the bear markets where Nasdaq 100 did drop -60%

 

 

Bears markets only last 2-3 years, I would be adding there. You will still make more holding through all that.

Edited by CLK, 28 June 2019 - 11:55 AM.

[CLK]

This is the only leveraged ETF bull fund I can find that included the 2007 bear market. Taking the highs in 2007 for SSO and SPY

and figuring the gain from there to the current levels, SPY increased by 230% vs. 280% for SSO. SSO is a 2x fund and although there wasn't a 460% gain it still outperformed SPY by about 22%. 

 

 

http://schrts.co/adyKTscd

Edited by CLK, 30 June 2019 - 11:01 AM.

[tradesurfer]

I think buying and holding a 3X ETF is ok if you can identify a large bull market chunk period of time from the beginning and also be willing to sit through 50 to 80% retracements.  You need to be confident enough about the length of the bull market period.

 

There were some periods where TNA had some huge draw downs but even then over time it still recovered.

[CLK]

I think buying and holding a 3X ETF is ok if you can identify a large bull market chunk period of time from the beginning and also be willing to sit through 50 to 80% retracements.  You need to be confident enough about the length of the bull market period.

 

There were some periods where TNA had some huge draw downs but even then over time it still recovered.

 

 

 

The key is making sure you have access to a lot of money at bear market lows, even if it's new money, to buy right there.

You might not catch the exact low but be scaling in. 

[tradesurfer]

Hey CLK, but doesn't the effectiveness of a buy and hold strategy on a 3x etf depend on the underlying instrument volatility ?

For example the max draw down on the qqq from 2009 to 2019 in qqq was maybe 20 to 25%

But if we were to try the same but and hold on USLV for example the max draw down on silver price if it goes from 15 to 100 might be much larger . Maybe a 50% mini bear on the way to 100 to 150

If you were going to buy and hold uslv for 5 to 10 years how would you manage it

Edited by tradesurfer, 02 July 2019 - 11:38 AM.

[diogenes227]

Buy and hold? Buy and hold? What's with that? Isn't this place called "Traders-talk"?

 

Trading-wise, these leveraged ETFs as just fine.  On my current swing signal, both TQQQ and UPRO are up 3.6%, TNA up 6.7%. In the sectors, FAS is up 7,5%, LABU 12%. We're talking four trading days here.

[CLK]

Buy and hold? Buy and hold? What's with that? Isn't this place called "Traders-talk"?

 

Trading-wise, these leveraged ETFs as just fine.  On my current swing signal, both TQQQ and UPRO are up 3.6%, TNA up 6.7%. In the sectors, FAS is up 7,5%, LABU 12%. We're talking four trading days here.

 

 

 

"On your current swing"  As if you get in perfect every time with no wrong moves and no stop outs, that's the advantage with buy and hold, you don't have a max drawdown or stop, you buy and you buy more on dips and keep buying, you don't try to time the market, but anybody can see a 30% drop is likely a good spot to be buying heavy.

 

 

I see so many unethical portrayals of profitability all over the trading boards, very few post entries, and of those few that do almost none provide stops, and these are trades so you know there is an exit if wrong in mind if not hard stop, but they don't publish those. So out of nowhere people that gave no trade all of a sudden are closing something out for huge profits, really, really?? You have no idea if the trade was real and if it was you certainly will not be made aware of the other attempts that ended in losses, nooo, they couldn't think of admitting a loss now could they, would tarnish their facade of a reputation.

Edited by CLK, 02 July 2019 - 07:45 PM.

[CLK]

Hey CLK, but doesn't the effectiveness of a buy and hold strategy on a 3x etf depend on the underlying instrument volatility ?

For example the max draw down on the qqq from 2009 to 2019 in qqq was maybe 20 to 25%

But if we were to try the same but and hold on USLV for example the max draw down on silver price if it goes from 15 to 100 might be much larger . Maybe a 50% mini bear on the way to 100 to 150

If you were going to buy and hold uslv for 5 to 10 years how would you manage it

 

 

If you want leverage you have to be willing to accept the volatility. How do you manage? You don't, you buy more. This is not an all in at one price and all money is used up. You need to be able to buy the corrections to take advantage of cheap prices. With buy and hold you have to accept the drawdowns, bear markets only last 2-3 years, bull markets usually are 20 years. Forget how much you are losing and focus on buying more.

Edited by CLK, 02 July 2019 - 07:53 PM.