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Market will drop now after FED & TRADE PUTs are not in play


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:56 PM

Wrote this earlier today: (IN BLUE)

 

TRADE and FED PUTs now off the table, with the TRADE PUT kicked down the road, a long way, as the President said "he is in no hurry for a deal" which can mean "that's enough of that, do not want to have to deal with it for next 18 months"

 

FED cannot raise rates with markets near the high or at the high or even about 5% down from the high.

 

That means the market has room to rise or drop on its own accord, reasons other than FED rate cut and Trade War, e.g. earning, NFM report, economic indicators, other geopolitical events

 

I expect the market to try to push a bit higher but the next major move is DOWN. 

 

Fizzling for a few sessions at the high, new marginal highs, but this leg up is over, done, good rally, good trades, now on to the down moves

 

It is quite possible for SPX to continue rallying to as high as 2030 but I think we are near or at a ST high and I look for at least a 5% decline starting soon. SPX must take out today's high and then close above it to maintain a bullish tone. 

 

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The last time stocks gapped up following ‘trade progress’ at G20 was December 3, and then the S&P fell 17%

10:30 AM - 1 Jul 2019

 

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 01 July 2019 - 05:32 PM

Is Morgan Stanley reading my posts?

Trade truce could give stocks a ‘one-day pop’ —and then watch out, warns Morgan Stanley’s Wilson

 

https://www.marketwa...w_theo_homepage



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 01 July 2019 - 05:35 PM

No way!
 

Opinion: The trade war is over — and China won

 

https://www.marketwa...w_theo_homepage



#4 CLK

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Posted 01 July 2019 - 05:51 PM

The stock market is NOT the economy, it caters to the rich. I think the Fed is more concerned with the economy than Wall street.

So, regardless, unless economic indicators improve, they will lower rates.



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 01 July 2019 - 07:32 PM

From BARRON'S

 

By Alex Eule |  Monday, July 1

Rally Caps. The setup looked just about perfect for the first day of July trading. The U.S. and China agreed over the weekend to restart trade talks, and President Donald Trump decided to ease the restrictions around U.S. companies selling products to Chinese tech giant Huawei Technologies. Those have been Worry 1 and Worry 1A among investors in recent weeks, particularly the technology set. 

But with those issues removed -- or at least set aside -- there was little standing in the way of stocks. "Put on Your Rally Caps" is how one analyst titled his research note over the weekend.

Sure enough, the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite surged this morning, up as much as 1.8% and nearing an all-time high. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average also jumped, but the euphoria was rather short lived. The excitement peaked 10 minutes into trading. The S&P 500 still closed at a new high, up 0.8% on the day. The Nasdaq and Dow are less than 1% off records of their own.

But if those major indexes can't hit a record on today's bullish news, what pushes them over the top from here? Maybe earnings? A new wave of quarterly reports starts later this month -- but they're not looking so promising at the moment. More on that below. 

Maybe the Federal Reserve? But without a trade war, there could be less incentive to cut rates. A slightly better-than-expected ISM manufacturing report today also tempered expectations for the large cut. By tonight, the futures market was slightly less optimistic about the chance for a half-point cut at the end-of-July meeting. 



#6 robo

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Posted 01 July 2019 - 07:44 PM

Wrote this earlier today: (IN BLUE)

 

TRADE and FED PUTs now off the table, with the TRADE PUT kicked down the road, a long way, as the President said "he is in no hurry for a deal" which can mean "that's enough of that, do not want to have to deal with it for next 18 months"

 

FED cannot raise rates with markets near the high or at the high or even about 5% down from the high.

 

That means the market has room to rise or drop on its own accord, reasons other than FED rate cut and Trade War, e.g. earning, NFM report, economic indicators, other geopolitical events

 

I expect the market to try to push a bit higher but the next major move is DOWN. 

 

Fizzling for a few sessions at the high, new marginal highs, but this leg up is over, done, good rally, good trades, now on to the down moves

 

It is quite possible for SPX to continue rallying to as high as 2030 but I think we are near or at a ST high and I look for at least a 5% decline starting soon. SPX must take out today's high and then close above it to maintain a bullish tone. 

 

@Hipster_Trader

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The last time stocks gapped up following ‘trade progress’ at G20 was December 3, and then the S&P fell 17%

10:30 AM - 1 Jul 2019

 

 

"Is Morgan Stanley reading my posts?"

 

LOL... Maybe, or they stop in to look for trading tips from Da-Chief.......

 

Good Trading!

 

Trend trading using the VXF daily data, and I remain long for now....  It just doesn't get any easier then this trading the current market.... Easy money for sure.....  The trades are free at Vanguard....

 

https://stockcharts....394&a=673223032


Edited by robo, 01 July 2019 - 07:52 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#7 opinionated

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Posted 01 July 2019 - 08:09 PM

I have a short going into this friday,  Look for the IWM trough to be tested about 153.50



#8 q4wer

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Posted 01 July 2019 - 08:21 PM

China doesn't win, US hasn't won either. None wins in this game.



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 01 July 2019 - 08:23 PM

Another TRADE WAR?

 

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US Proposes An Additional $4 Billion In Tariffs On European Imports

3:45 PM - 1 Jul 2019


#10 robo

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Posted 01 July 2019 - 08:25 PM

I have a short going into this friday,  Look for the IWM trough to be tested about 153.50

Waiting to see when the next rate cut cycle begins from the Fed.  I have been told it's Bullish....   I guess it's going to be different this time based on my monthly chart.... What....no flat top!

 

Good Trading - Bulls and Bears....

 

https://stockcharts....315&a=674061934


Edited by robo, 01 July 2019 - 08:34 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore