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China .... its all about China


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#1 trioderob

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Posted 17 July 2019 - 01:14 PM

right now there is an issue where south east asia is starting to stagnate because of the tariffs.

 

this has spread beyond China to areas such as Singapore - thats bad 

 

in addition China is calling a poker hand this week - deal or no deal ?

 

see story :

 

https://www.scmp.com...-you-want-trade

 

look to BITCOIN for clues as a selloff in cryptos will show the markets hand

 

now the $64,000 question - does all this force the fed to make a 50 basis point cut ?

 

would be bad for market if its 25 with lots of jawboning  



#2 q4wer

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Posted 17 July 2019 - 05:05 PM

you found a reason for the street.   They do what makes them money,  it has nothing to do with China.

Market didn't react to President's remark yesterday, why it matters today.  It's all about the options, killing the call premium.


Edited by q4wer, 17 July 2019 - 05:11 PM.


#3 trioderob

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Posted 17 July 2019 - 05:14 PM

and what's your  reason going to be tommorrow ?



#4 LMF

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Posted 17 July 2019 - 06:04 PM

Atlanta Fed still has GDP around 1.6% for Q2......the tariff thing is the tiny blip on the radar screen based on the size of the US economy. It hasnt changed at all from that. And the slow down outside the US is only going to increase the capital flows into the US. It may already be to the point where nobody has the time to care what happens to the EU zone.....nobody in the zone has the brains to figure it out.

Everybody has to be wondering what in the world the Fed is really looking at right now. We are data driven they keep saying.....it must be the database of zip codes or something else just as nuts. Isnt the 10 year treasury yield enough.....

Edited by LMF, 17 July 2019 - 06:05 PM.