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Posted 18 July 2019 - 05:53 AM
This trade too crowded but still watching it
#Japanification goes global! Hedge Fund Manager Kyle Bass wagers Fed policy will turn Japanese. Betting man who called US subprime mortgage crisis and successfully bets against Greece & Iceland predicts US rates will touch zero. https://www.ft.com/content/fa8cfc36-a7d0-11e9-984c-fac8325aaa04 …
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Posted 18 July 2019 - 05:53 AM
The world’s almost $13tn pile of negative-yielding bonds is looking like “quicksand” that risks trapping much of the fixed-income universe, including the US. JPM sees risk that US yields neg within 3yrs, & the whole market is sitting at zero & neg yields. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-17/negative-yield-quicksand-risks-trapping-even-u-s-bond-market …
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Posted 18 July 2019 - 06:37 AM
This would make for a wild & exciting, and very profitable, year!
The S&P 500′s performance so far this year has an “uncanny” resemblance to the index’s showing in 1998, and if history is any guide, the rest of the year could be a roller coaster for stocks.
Source: Bespoke
The S&P 500 has soared in 2019, with the index up nearly 20% since the start of the year. It hit an all-time intraday high at 3,017.80, and record close of 3,014.30 on Monday, marking the ninth all-time intraday high and and 11th record close of the year. The benchmark slipped slightly Wednesday.
Bespoke Investment Group screened the nine times in the index’s history that the S&P 500 was up more than 20% at this point in the year and the firm found a striking resemblance to the last time this was the case, in 1998.
In 1998, the S&P 500 peaked in late July around 1,184 but by the start of September, the index gave up all of its year-to-date gains because of the Russian debt crisis and the blow-up of hedge fund Long Term Capital Management, Bespoke said.
In the subsequent month after reaching its high in July, the S&P 500 lost nearly 8%, in the subsequent three months the index lost more than 15%.
The S&P 500 continued to sell off and hit a low in October of around 959.
However, once the debt crisis was over, the S&P 500 surged more than 25% from mid-October until the end of the year. The index ended the year up more than 4% since its earlier high in July around 1,229 and up more than 26% for the year.
Near-term threats that could send stocks tanking, like they did in July 1998, include a further breakdown in the U.S.-China trade war and a more severe economic slowdown.
https://www.cnbc.com...f-the-year.html
Meanwhile, on the trade front: a phone call to arrange resumpttion of talks
https://www.cnbc.com...r-thursday.html
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Posted 18 July 2019 - 08:41 AM
The S&P 500 continued to sell off and hit a low in October
Fits with a projected Laundry "ringing cycle" low.
Edited by Rogerdodger, 18 July 2019 - 08:43 AM.
Member
Posted 18 July 2019 - 09:18 AM
Some are getting quite queasy about Powell's appetite to cut, but he WILL CUT, 50 bps, and then sound a bit more hawkish....
Majority of Philly Fed respondents expect an increase in demand for mfg products. Time for a 50bps rate cut @federalreserve
Member
Posted 18 July 2019 - 09:19 AM
The S&P 500 continued to sell off and hit a low in October
Fits with a projected Laundry "ringing cycle" low.
My most likely path is about the same
is LAUNDRY around? website or twitter?
he was extremely popular
Member
Posted 18 July 2019 - 01:00 PM
is LAUNDRY around? website or twitter?
Terrance Laundry 1939-7/14/12
https://stock-market...ndry-1939-2012/
Posted July 13, 2012 by Parker Binion
With a heavy heart, I am sad to announce that Terry passed away last night. The news came as a shock to us. Paula and I SKYPED with Terry yesterday, and he was chipper and excited about our upcoming projects.
I just want to always attribute his observations to him.
But I have been a bit surprised how often his "Ringing Cycle" theory seems to be predictive.
This one is roughly a 10 month cycle based on the distance of one bottom of a deep correction to the next, going back multiple years.
Edited by Rogerdodger, 18 July 2019 - 01:08 PM.
