32 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

It's been a really long time since I have seen anyone mention it, but this is not just anyone but Sentiment Trader. 

 

Anyway, this was one of those top 10 trading days for daytraders when the market had a realtively long range with the bulls coming back from down there to SPX 3K.

Still, I am bearish and will be so unless there is a new SPX high.

 

SentimenTrader

‏Verified account @sentimentrader

FollowFollow @sentimentrader

More

Skeptics cue the , but today was the first time since early last October when both the NYSE and Nasdaq triggered Hindenburg Omens. There have been 199 signals since 1962. Future returns were

2:09 PM - 18 Jul 2019

 

[dTraderB]

Tired, that's why there are so many typos

 

HINDENBURG (like the dam balloon!)

[dTraderB]

and then this!  Will it crash?

Nah, not as yet, but the big one for 2019 is not too far off. Got to get that 50 bps cut climax and then the Bears will rule

 

SentimenTrader‏Verified account @sentimentrader

FollowFollow @sentimentrader

More

The Dumb Money Is Nearing Maximum Confidence https://www.sentimentrader.com//blog/the-dumb-money-is-nearing-maximum-confidence/ … via @sentimentrader

Confidence nears upper bound

Over the last couple of days, Dumb Money Confidence has poked above 80%. While it has gone higher over the past 20 years, this is in the top 2.3% of all readings.'

It’s high enough that it has preceded weak returns, especially in recent years, and those times when stocks aren’t coming out of a major decline.

Barometer is busting

A fundamental indicator created by Yardeni Research, the Boom-Bust Barometer, has been “busting” even while stocks reach new highs. The Barometer hit a 52-week low this month even as the S&P 500 hit an all-time high.

This has indicated some troubling conditions in the past but was too inconsistent to be considered a warning. Curiously, it led to atrocious returns in gold and bonds.

More signs of optimism

The Investor’s Intelligence survey of newsletter writers now has a Bull Ratio in the top 5% of all readings in the past 30 years. Such high readings led to poor 1-year returns, with the S&P averaging only 2.3%. Excluding the super-momentum years of 2013 and 2017, that dropped to -1.3%, with risk of -10.9%.

On the mat

The Dow Jones Oil & Gas Index is now negative over the past 6 months while oil futures are up more than 8%. That has happened on 413 days since 1991, leading to a positive return in the sector 78% of the time a year later, averaging +12.2%. When the opposite occurred, that dropped to a 56% win rate, averaging +5.2%.

https://www.sentimen...mum-confidence/

[dTraderB]

Still red:

 

https://www.marketin...llan-oscillator

[dTraderB]

Even the China Furniture Indicator is bearish, LOL

 

zerohedge‏ @zerohedge

FollowFollow @zerohedge

More

Beijing Lets One Slip: Obscure Data Suggests China Housing Bubble Has Burst

https://www.zerohedg...ubble-has-burst

[dTraderB]

What's it with the FED guys? 

 

Come one, FED, this is serious stuff, just cut 50bps and we will not bother you for the next 3 months, until the October crash

 

zerohedge‏ @zerohedge

FollowFollow @zerohedge

More

'Just Kidding' - Fed Desperately Walks Back Williams' ZIRP Comments

What a farce.

A few short hours after NY Fed President John Williams sparked mayhem  in the markets by dropping the most dovish of hints in a speech:

"First, take swift action when faced with adverse economic conditions.

Second, keep interest rates lower for longer.

And third, adapt monetary policy strategies to succeed in the context of low r-star and the ZLB."

Signaling to the market that lower, sooner, and longer is the way forward, a Fed spokesman has issued a 'just kidding' statement in a desperate attempt to walk back market expectations.

 

https://www.zerohedg...s-zirp-comments

[dTraderB]

50 bps, no doubt about it, then market drops sharply after initial spike up

 

CNBC:

 

KEY POINTS

• The Fed is expected to cut interest rates at the end of the month even though some U.S. economic reports look better than expected and the U.S. consumer is showing signs of strength.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell has stressed that the Fed is watching the impact of trade wars, the weakening global economy and low inflation, when it considers policy moves.
• Market expectations for a half percentage point cut rose to nearly 70% in the fed funds futures market late Thursday, after dovish comments from both New York Fed President John Williams and Vice Chair Richard Clarida spurred speculation the Fed would be more aggressive cutting rates this month.

https://www.cnbc.com...this-month.html

[dTraderB]

Bloomberg‏Verified account @business

FollowFollow @business

More

A $338 billion money manager says it's time to start pulling out of stocks https://bloom.bg/2Y27pRf 

5:36 PM - 18 Jul 2019

[da_cheif]

db trader...     we thank you for your bearish contributions......keeping the market equation in balance in favor of the minority bulls has been your outstanding contribution

[AChartist]

I did sell quite a bit yesterday, probably early as I usually say my cycles will peak with breadth before calculated index.

Fake mkts can right translate a long time before a late drop at cycle low but when they do that there was usually no benefit to sticking around for termites.

I will ignore it until a good drop, late fall originally it looked like late Sep low. I do think up well in next couple years if not inclined to

sell long term positions the mkt sure is rigged to go up I understand that. At this point the 401k says 8% average over 3 years I dont trade it

often is never my intent for 401k to trade I just think the Deutschbank, epstein, gold, bitcoin, google-FB-youtube treason/antitrust, etc, is saying something for now.

I do have some more to sell if any more fake crap. Armstrong said gold will correct with everything else this fall too but I am keeping that in 401k.