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[robo]

1. thomas‏ @* Jul 20
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   $ES has a problem here... we'll see what happens early in the week (Daily Chart)

https://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics

 

Edited by robo, 21 July 2019 - 05:28 PM.

[dTraderB]

NORTHMAN:

 

But as with cheap money, once you go down that road of daily massaging markets it’s hard to extract yourself from that mess. Now markets expect daily soothing and when they don’t get it they react, as did futures Friday following close when Rosengren uttered slightly less dovish words. “I think we should wait”.

Yes, this is what our markets have devolved into. A giant Fed gaming operation and it’s safe to say that the entire month price action will be greatly influenced by what the Fed does on July 31, the last day of the month.

But by setting expectations they have cornered themselves into a position where they constantly need to feed the appetite of the beast they themselves have created: A Fed dependent market that needs and wants more stimulus.

And now here we are, at some of the highest valuations:

https://northmantrad...-for-control-2/

 

With come key stocks massively technically extended (see also: To the stars):

[dTraderB]

why the FED will cut 50 bps

 

From Lance:

 

While the market is still hanging above the May highs, further corrective actions are likely next week as the short-term oversold conditions have not been resolved as of yet. The deviation above the long-term mean is also only starting to reverse as well.

Importantly, once we get past the end of the month, and assuming the Fed does indeed cut rates and no “trade deal” with China, the markets will return their focus to economics and earnings. As we stated previously:

“Such continues to suggest the August/September time frame for a larger corrective cycle is still in play.”

More importantly, as Chris Kimble noted on Friday, the market is continuing to ignore the economic warnings being sent by bonds and commodities.

Moreover, the “Dumb Money” is now all the way back in.

These last two charts confirm the old Wall Street axiom:

“Individuals buy  the most at the top, and the least at the bottom.” 

This is why we are hedging our risk, carrying a higher level of cash, and holding onto our bonds as if they were the last lifeboat on the Titanic.

Why The Fed Will Cut By 50bps

It is now widely expected the Fed will cut rates at the end of the month following comments by Fed officials last week. Per the WSJ:

“New York Fed President John Williams on Thursday stoked expectations for a hefty cut. Already-low interest rates are a big reason to cut aggressively at the first sign of economic distress, he said. ‘Don’t keep your powder dry—that is, move more quickly to add monetary stimulus than you otherwise might.’ But a bank spokesman later walked that back, saying Mr. Williams didn’t intend to suggest the central bank might make a large cut this month.”

Interestingly, that statement was quickly walked back by the NY Fed:

“However, in an unprecedented move, the NY Fed subsequently released a statement stating that President Williams’s speech on Thursday afternoon was not intended to send a signal that the Fed might make a large interest rate cut this month but rather it was “an academic speech on 20 years of research.”

Why did the NY Fed do this?

Simple: as BofA explains, ‘the FOMC was uncomfortable with the market moving toward a 50bp cut and wanted to push the market back to a 25bp baseline.’ In other words, as Meyer puts it, ‘Williams unintentionally misguided the markets.'”

With the markets pushing record highs, recent employment and regional manufacturing surveys showing improvement, and retail sales rebounding, it certainly suggests the Fed should remain patient on hiking rates for now at least until more data becomes available. Patience would also seem logical given very limited room to lower rates before returning to the “zero bound.”

However, there is also support for rate cuts. This is the point we will discuss today.

https://realinvestme...atter-07-19-19/

[dTraderB]

Carl:

 

 

The Bullish Percent Index (BPI) shows the percentage of stocks in a given index with Point and figure BUY signals. Besides having a BPI for the major market indexes, StockCharts.com also has a BPI for each of the 11 Sector SPDRs, and I have started to display them with their respective sectors. The Technology BPI ($BPINFO) is at 90%, which shows excellent participation; however, it is likely that it has peaked and will start declining again. This will erode support of the sector index, and will probably result in a price decline. Also note that the PMO and OBV have negative divergences against price, offering more evidence of technical weakness.

The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds.

Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on StockCharts TV's YouTube channel here!

https://stockcharts....y-sect-843.html

[redfoliage2]

Last week it's all about the OpEx.   There still a chance for SPX 3050 either before or after the Fed day by the end of the month................ 

Edited by redfoliage2, 21 July 2019 - 06:43 PM.

[robo]

Last week it's all about the OpEx.   There still a chance for SPX 3050 either before or after the Fed day by the end of the month................ 

The week after Opex usually has a downward bias. We shall see if that holds true this week. An indicator Sy Harding use to point out on his blog....

Edited by robo, 21 July 2019 - 07:54 PM.

[dTraderB]

Really HUGE week ! 

Big swings possible

Could see new SPX high and the lower than SPX 2900

 

Earnings galore

 

GDP data

 

all leading into the FED 50bs next week, after which the SPX will be on an IT decline

 

Holger Zschaepitz‏ @Schuldensuehner

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More

Global race to the bottom: Swiss National Bank is facing a new wall of pressure that could force SNB to push the world’s lowest central bank interest rate even lower. Swiss Franc has gained >6% vs the Euro since end-2017 despite SNB's interventions. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-22/swiss-national-bank-in-hot-seat-facing-a-global-wall-of-easing …

1:24 AM - 22 Jul 2019

[dTraderB]

And. in addition to everything else  - do not forget that IRAN situation and this:

 

Ivan the K™ ‏ @IvanTheK

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Ivan the K™ Retweeted Laurence Tribe

How is this "not to contribute to unreal expectations"?

Ivan the K™ added,

Laurence TribeVerified account @tribelaw

Not to contribute to unrealistic expectations, but Mueller’s testimony — even if he says little— will be a Big F-ing Deal. As turning points go, it has the potential to do a 180. Watch this space. https://www. politico.com/story/2019/07/21/democrats-robert-mueller-hearing-1424332 …

3:55 AM - 22 Jul 2019

[robo]

The Options Speculation Index is giving us a warning signal for stocks, but I'm already flat VXF.

 

 

Uh-Oh, Mom Likes the Gold Stocks

Published  July 22, 2019 - 7:30 AM

The Mother Indicator (MI) flashed a sell signal on one of my favorite assets last Thursday.

You’ll recall from Friday’s Market Minute essay, a Mother Indicator sell signal is generated whenever my mother calls me and wants to buy a particular investment. The MI has a near perfect track record as a contrary indicator – meaning… when mom wants in, we should all get out.

There are only two requirements for this indicator…

• Mom has to call me, and
• Mom has to bring up the idea.

In other words, if I initiate the phone call or if I prompt mom with a question like, “Hey, what are you thinking about doing with your money these days?” then there is no signal.

Mom has to call me, and she has to bring up the subject.

My phone buzzed last Thursday at about noon. Mom wanted to buy gold stocks.

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/

 

 

 

I'm flat VXF in my Vanguard account and IWM has gone NO WHERE for 5 months now....  VST trading only for now and mainly from the dark side.....LOL.... I'm still on a hold for GDXJ ( long position and long XES)

 

https://stockcharts....402&a=677465463

 

Good Trading!

 

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   thomas‏ @* 39m39 minutes ago

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   I'm not seeing much interest in shorting via ETFs this morning... an outright selloff in that $TZA and look at $FAZ - not a single share traded premarket... it's about what people DO not what they SAY they do.

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   thomas‏ @* 51m51 minutes ago

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   thomas Retweeted The Market Ear

   Somebody forgot to tell SHORT $RUT ETF $TZA Down almost 1% Pre-Market

   thomas added,

   The Market Ear @themarketear

   Russell still refusing this rally... https://themarketear.com/posts/cdRW28P6ss …

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Edited by robo, 22 July 2019 - 08:19 AM.

[redfoliage2]

 

Last week it's all about the OpEx.   There still a chance for SPX 3050 either before or after the Fed day by the end of the month................ 

The week after Opex usually has a downward bias. We shall see if that holds true this week. An indicator Sy Harding use to point out on his blog....

 

 

 If an OpEx week is a down week I expect an up day on the following Monday,  just a trick from MMs for options clearance.

Edited by redfoliage2, 22 July 2019 - 08:58 AM.