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Bears failed to seize the initiative, ST low may be in place


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 03:17 PM

or formed tomorrow unless there is a lower SPX close and low. 

 

SPX must close below 2960 tomorrow to retain my bearish indicator

 

I was posting more of this but lost my draft post or it is somewhere! 

 

So, the higher probability is a ST low followed by a rally to new SPX highs into the FED cut and then a BIG decline

 

We could see SPX 3120 or higher

 

There is still the good possibility of a big drop during the next few days but I am not seeing motivated and energized sellers inthe market 

 

They may be out there, but invisible for now.

 

 



#2 tsharp

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 04:12 PM

My momentum work reversed back to long just after the 10:00 am bar at 2882:

 

SP00-15-7-22-19-1.jpg

 

SP00-240-7-22-19.jpg



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 06:28 PM

My momentum work reversed back to long just after the 10:00 am bar at 2882:

 

SP00-15-7-22-19-1.jpg

 

SP00-240-7-22-19.jpg

 

I waited until trading picked up again during the afternoon but there was no heavy selling and the markets drifted aimlesslly while marking time. 
So, tomorrow's hourly candles - especially those after lunch - should confirm if this decline is over or will continue



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 06:28 PM

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All are signposts that the bull run still has juice https://bloom.bg/2Y74UgB 

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3:13 PM - 22 Jul 2019


#5 opinionated

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Posted 22 July 2019 - 08:57 PM

Short the day of the cut with both hands.  Bigger cycles turn down 8-1

 

Final chance for ST cycle bottom was today.  I think 3030 min this week



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 23 July 2019 - 06:15 AM

FED must cut 50 bps and then state they will be analyzing the data to determine future cuts. They must not get into auto Cut mode; neither should they get into QE. There must be some ammunition left for future use. 

 

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Goldman on rate cut odds

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3:58 AM - 23 Jul 2019

 



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 23 July 2019 - 07:16 AM

MIght  daytrade VXX today...if possible, since NQ is zooming ahead and may require 100% attention & time

 

I may get that QQQ > 195 level today so I can consider buying puts. But, this move up looks like it could last until post-Fed so not 

jumping in front of a rampaging bull stampede. 

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VXN - close under the 10 EMA and in sync with the VIX - generally the strongest moves occur when the VIX and VXN are in sync - Same with the indexes.

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1:26 AM - 23 Jul 2019


#8 robo

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Posted 23 July 2019 - 08:26 AM

Watching this too.......

 

  1. EXTREME TURBULENCE NOW ... CURRENCY MARKET....Definitely stay close to your wallet... somebody is going to get SCREWED here.

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    It's not that $USD - $DX is going up... it's all about the $EUR and $GBP going DOWN here...

I bought a small position of DUST.....  I'm still long some XES  ( VST trading both ways using the 30 minute chart)

 

https://stockcharts....303&a=677707055


Edited by robo, 23 July 2019 - 08:36 AM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#9 dTraderB

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Posted 23 July 2019 - 09:16 AM

Watching this too.......

 

  1. EXTREME TURBULENCE NOW ... CURRENCY MARKET....Definitely stay close to your wallet... somebody is going to get SCREWED here.

    1 reply1 retweet2 likes
    Reply
     1
     
    Retweet
     1
     
     
    Like
     2
  2.  

    It's not that $USD - $DX is going up... it's all about the $EUR and $GBP going DOWN here...

I bought a small position of DUST.....  I'm still long some XES  ( VST trading both ways using the 30 minute chart)

 

https://stockcharts....303&a=677707055

 

 

DXY approaching one-month high

 

I still think market is now in BTFD mode until after this week's earnings and FED cut next week

 

If I can get a spike up in VXX I will sell; if not, then I will daytrade it LONG or SHORT



#10 robo

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Posted 23 July 2019 - 09:25 AM

I mainly trade small caps. This is day 7 IWM is under the the 10 DMA so I remain in cash....  VST trading both ways like you...

 

 

VXX looks like its close to a move up,  and so I wait for it to move above the 10 DMA.... I will need to see some "BEEF" and a move back above the 10 DMA  before buying back my VXF position.

 

Good Trading!

 

https://stockcharts....019&a=677465463

 

https://stockcharts....303&a=677707055


Edited by robo, 23 July 2019 - 09:27 AM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore