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A TOP ahead but not there as yet - BOND KING warns


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#21 hhh

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Posted 25 July 2019 - 10:49 AM

next week stocks, gold get slammed hard down

Pre or post Fed? Or both?



#22 robo

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Posted 25 July 2019 - 11:40 AM

LOL...  More whipsawing.....  Which way should I go.......

 

11:10 Extreme Transitionary Behavior https://sevensentinels.com/july-25-2019-intraday-2/ 

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https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels

 

Sven Henrich Retweeted THE LONG VIEW ⚫️

2019 = Multiple expansion

Sven Henrich added,

THE LONG VIEW  ⚫️ @HayekAndKeynes
Without buybacks, S&P earnings are now declining at 6% The year over year rate falls to -3.7% with them included
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My back-of-the envelope calcs have profits at -5% SAAR in Q2 and we know that real avg weekly income came in at -1%. The recession on an "income" basis may have started. As usual, the bond market was early in figuring it out.

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Bears > bulls in the AAII survey with stocks at a high. Dumb money climbing a "wall of worry"? On Mar 29, 2000, the S&P closed at a record high. That week showed 39% bulls and 50% bears. $SPX lost 10% w/in a month. 27 other weeks like this were barely positive next 3 months.

 

 

 

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    Total money raised > $40 bln Estimated market value > $300 bln Good luck, public.

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    Largest 2019 IPOs est earnings (in $ mm) WeWork: -1,900 Uber: -1,800 Lyft: -910 Chewy: -267 Crowdstrike: -140 iHeartMedia: -115 Medallia: -82 Postmates: -80 Casper: -64 Robinhood: -50 Slack: -39 Pinterest: -39 Beyond Meat: -29 Palantir: -10 Zoom: -7.5 Peloton: +25 Airbnb: +150

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    Total money raised > $40 bln Estimated market value > $300 bln Good luck, public.

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Whether its Bloomberg articles getting more attention (e.g., "Central Bankers Play Dangerous Game Risking Asset Bubbles") or this from @CNBC's Kelly Evans,there's more recognition in market circles of the collateral damage risk associated with protracted reliance on #CentralBanks

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    Exited the rest 50% at SPX 3000

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    My ST is up, MT is UP and LT is down. LT will be up again above SPX 3073. That does not really help us in ST trading though !

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    Took +18 on half position


Edited by robo, 25 July 2019 - 11:45 AM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#23 blustar

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Posted 25 July 2019 - 02:02 PM

My forecast was for an 8/16 TD top early today. The SPX futures were +4, but the cash ignored it.  Early this morning about 8:15 EDT we had a Mars/Jupiter trine.  These can be semi-nasty tops on a VST level and we saw that today.  I also had a TLC low due today which means buy the dip into Friday. Since July 18 [by my reckoning], we have been in a wave "a" of an abc rally.  That ended late Wed. for the cash players and early Thursday for the futures players. Mercury conj. Venus last night was also a warning sign.  I see today as 'x' of "b" with 'y' tomorrow possibly into the low 3020's. There is a Bradley turn due Monday and the recent 8 TD lows have been running 7 and that is due Monday about 2 hours before the close.  Ideally, we should see a gap fill near 2985/86. "c" should commence an abc rally into August 2 and ideally around 3041/42 expected for the high and top.  A double top is due on the 14th ala Oct 3, 2018 if all remains stable. I'm looking for an early November low ala Landry's ringing cycle.  A move into the low to mid 2400's is expected by then.


Edited by blustar, 25 July 2019 - 02:04 PM.

Blessings,

 

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#24 blustar

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Posted 25 July 2019 - 03:44 PM

Just in case I'm wrong about my previous forecast I just put this out to my subs:

 

The SPX formed a bearish harami on the daily. The last one I can see on the chart was Jan 26, 2018 right before the big crash in February.

 
I'm not saying we get that here, but the recent high was not confirmed on the daily stochastics and MACD and made what may be a double top.  The futures went to cash 3024 before the open and formed the 8/16 trading day top.  There is a possible H&S topping pattern that suggests 2920 by Tuesday.  Very odd to just bottom on an 8 TD low, but sub-dominant reversals have happened before. Just a head's up. Watching.

Edited by blustar, 25 July 2019 - 03:46 PM.

Blessings,

 

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#25 blustar

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Posted 25 July 2019 - 05:03 PM

Also, I have found a TLC [trend line convergence] low, a strong one due on August 2 which is 11 TD's past the 16 TD low on July 18.  The last time we saw an 11 TD low past a normal 16 TD low was in early October (10//11).  Bears watching the action on FED day!!


Edited by blustar, 25 July 2019 - 05:12 PM.

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#26 dTraderB

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Posted 26 July 2019 - 07:03 AM

Extremely busy yesterday - daytrading NQ and VXX



#27 12SPX

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Posted 26 July 2019 - 07:17 AM

Extremely busy yesterday - daytrading NQ and VXX

Was fun wasn't it!!