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The Storm is here: 4 days of intense trading ahead


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 29 July 2019 - 09:04 PM

From BARRON'S:

 

By Nicholas Jasinski |  Monday, July 29

Bated Breath.  Most of this week's market-concerning action has yet to come. Over the next four days, several central banks make policy decisions, U.S.-China trade talks resume, major economic data is released, and 147 S&P 500 companies report earnings.

Today was merely the calm before the storm. The S&P 500 pulled back slightly from its record high set on Friday, falling 0.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4%. All are within half a percentage point of their all-time closing highs.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade RepresentativeRobert Lighthizer will negotiate with Chinese Vice-premier Liu He in Shanghai tomorrow. It's the first high-level round of trade talks since previous efforts broke down in May. Here's what three strategists and economists are watching for from the talks.

Plenty of economic data this week will provide insights into various parts of the U.S. economy. The Conference Board’s July consumer confidence index is forecast to indicate improving household sentiment when released tomorrow. Last month's Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June showed a contraction of the Chicago-area manufacturing sector for the first time since January 2017. The July survey results are out on Thursday, followed by Jobs Friday. The July employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to show 160,000 new jobs added and a steady unemployment rate at 3.7%.

Companies reporting earnings through Friday include AppleGeneral ElectricVerizon Communications, and Exxon Mobil.

But most of all, markets will be watching central banks around the world. The Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are both likely to hold their benchmark interest rates steady when they announce monetary policy decisions tomorrow and Thursday, respectively.

Starting tomorrow is also the Federal Reserve's interest rate-setting committee's July meeting. Things are expected to go differently there, with federal-funds futures market pricing implying about a 75% probability of a quarter-percentage point rate cut – and 25% implying a half point. The current rate has a target range from 2.25% to 2.50%.

The committee will release its statement on Wednesday afternoon, followed by a press conference with Chairman Jerome Powell. The last statement warned of a darkening economic picture abroad and other risks to U.S. economic growth, setting the stage for accommodative action like a rate cut this meeting. To help you position your portfolio for that outcome and more, Barron's has it covered from all angles. Here's how the Fed's decision on Wednesday impacts...
The stock market
The bond market
Dividend stocks
Tech stocks
Oil stocks
Retail stocks
Industrial stocks
Small-cap stocks
Gold
The Dollar
Bitcoin

The Calendar

AppleAdvanced Micro DevicesProcter & GambleUnder ArmourAltria GroupAmgenConoco PhillipsElectronic ArtsEliLillyGrubhubMastercard, and Pfizer and all report earnings tomorrow.

A U.S. delegation led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin heads to Shanghai to meet with their Chinese counterparts to discuss the ongoing trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

The Bank of Japan announces its monetary-policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep its key interest rate at negative 0.1%.

SunTrust Banks and BB&T will hold special shareholder meetings at which stockholders will be asked to approve the proposed merger of the two regional banks. The combined company would be the sixth-largest bank in the U.S. and called Truist Financial.

The Conference Board reports its Consumer Confidence Index for July. Economists forecast a 125.4 reading, up from June’s 121.5.

The National Association of Realtors releases its Pending Home Sales Index for June. Consensus estimates are for a 0.5% gain in pending sales, down from May’s 1.1% rise.



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 29 July 2019 - 09:08 PM

David Larew @ThinkTankCharts
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Put Call Ratio - BullishNess has gone Parabolic. Contrarain indicator?

EArU6ScUIAEG4Kd.png
3:36 PM - 29 Jul 2019


#3 robo

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Posted 29 July 2019 - 09:40 PM

This is what happened in 2007 when they started a rate cut cycle..... It better be different this time if you are a LT investor...  Looking forward to some big swings to trade.....  The data says bounce unless it's already happened because the Fed already told us it was in the bag.... I want to see if there is going to be a nice XES trade.

 

https://stockcharts....756&a=679429176


Edited by robo, 29 July 2019 - 09:48 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 06:36 AM

Market near the top so a great time to throw in some "bad" trade deal news

 

The Trade News PUT will be implemented again when the markets are lower



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 06:39 AM

It is sacrilegious to criticize Tom but it appears to me that some of the previous options parameters, ratios etc may not apply as well as they did in today's markets.

 

Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc
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Options traders are feeling pretty complacent. Lowest reading for Put/Call Volume Ratio's 5MA since the Jan. 2018 price peak.

EAsfBhRU8AA0Maf.png
9:00 PM - 29 Jul 2019


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 06:40 AM

Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc
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The SPX restarted a tight correlation with the 1999 pattern in mid-January 2019. It was working great until last week. So either the higher high last week is a break from 99's pattern, or the market has gone off track, will soon realize it, & work hard to make up for lost time.

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7:27 PM - 29 Jul 2019


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 06:42 AM

Only GREED, normal garden variety, not EXTREME GREED

 

https://money.cnn.co...fear-and-greed/



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 06:48 AM

Hugging the flat line

 

https://www.marketin...llan-oscillator



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 06:57 AM

Boris & the Brit Pound... will the Pound reach parity vs $US? Ditto for EURO?

 

zerohedge @zerohedge
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As Trade Talks Begin, Trump Lashes Out At China In Angry Tweetstorm

 

Global Stocks Slide As Traders Await Fed's Rate Cut; Pound Crash Accelerates



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 06:59 AM

Please, bring it on, markets will love it, I can't wait to trade this:

 

zerohedge @zerohedge
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