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Make Volatility Great Again! Near a LOW


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 03:56 PM

Whether ST or IT, we are nearing a low with a possible spike down to SPX 2780/90

 

WHEN? It's all up in the air as reaction to today's plunge comes in and traders assess.

 

I do not expect new SPX high until September or October, if at all possible this year, but the 

markets will make a low and rally in September with the prospect of a 50bps cut as well as increased QE.

 

FED could come in earlier - they have that power

 

Helene Meisler @hmeisler
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Like him or not, POTUS has made volatility great again.

12:42 PM - 5 Aug 2019

Edited by dTraderB, 05 August 2019 - 03:57 PM.


#2 dTraderB

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 04:04 PM

Helene Meisler @hmeisler
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Helene Meisler Retweeted Steve Deppe, CMT

At least it's not 1929!

Helene Meisler added,

Steve Deppe, CMT @SJD10304
Have to go back to 12/16/1992 to find an all-time high daily close that was then immediately followed by a 6 day losing streak.
12:45 PM - 5 Aug 2019


#3 dTraderB

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 04:10 PM

SentimenTraderVerified account @sentimentrader
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Volatility expectations among the S&P's 100 largest stocks have doubled in less than 2 weeks. One of the few times in 30 years traders have adjusted this much, this fast.

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12:34 PM - 5 Aug 2019


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 04:12 PM

Trading Volatility @tradevolatility
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Ding-ding-ding! Closing data:

$VIX: 24.59, +39.6%

$VXX: 29.96, +18.4%

VXQ19: 21.69, +23.6%

VXU19: 20.25, +14.4%

1:24 PM - 5 Aug 2019


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 04:14 PM

Troy Bombardia @bullmarketsco
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$VIX spiked more than 100% over the past 6 days This coincided with short term bottoms in $SPX (up 1 week later) that were later retested or saw lower lows. Average maximum drawdown of -6% over the next 3 months

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1:57 PM - 5 Aug 2019


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 04:17 PM

From FEAR to EXTREME FEAR

https://money.cnn.co...fear-and-greed/



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 04:18 PM

A/D 

 

https://www.marketin...ce-decline-line



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 04:20 PM

Tom thinks the down move may be near the end

 

SO FAST?
 

Financial Sense @FinancialSense_
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Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc says he expects a short-term correction into August, Marc Chandler @marcmakingsense believes we may be seeing an end to the US #dollar's bull run, and Jim and Chris discuss the #Fed's first #rate #cut since 2008...

https://www.financia...end-dollars-run

 



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 04:21 PM

Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc
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Coming up in this week's McClellan Market Report newsletter, a discussion of how the current selloff was fully expected, and close to being done. https://www.mcoscillator.com/market_reports/ 

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7:28 AM - 5 Aug 2019


#10 dTraderB

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Posted 05 August 2019 - 04:26 PM

Not over as yet:

 

"Charles Hugh Smith, known for his Of Two Minds blog, like many other market bears, has been calling for a painful end to this bull run for a while now.

“Nothing the Fed could do will restore a fragile, speculation-dependent, debt-bubble economy to any sort of health,” he wrote. “Whatever the Fed does, it further distorts a massively distorted system, increasing the odds of a catastrophic re-set.”

He posted this chart to give an idea of how bubbles typically end:

MW-HO839_crashs_20190805135901_NS.png?uu

Are we about to see a bounce that provides that “last exit point?”

Soon enough, Smith says, the Federal Reserve, at the behest of President Trump, will attempt to save the market but will ultimately fail."

https://www.marketwa...05?siteid=nwhpm