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Potential Lehman style selloff Part II


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#81 punter

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 07:57 AM

high chance of sep rate according to CNBC.

https://www.cnbc.com...-80percent.html

 

I am doing my own modeling. Reaction in Asian markets should generally be positive but it won't last long. I think positive effect only last till early oct, up till Chinese CPC anniversary on 1 oct. thereafter I think more downside. will look at us markets when I have more data points.

 

there was a recent forum where 2 very experienced (and retired) traders spoke, one specializing in Hang Seng and the other Taiex. The hang seng guy has a target of 22000, which is about 20% down from current levels. the taiwan guy had a divergent view, ATH for Taiex and U.S. markets.

 

most reports which I have seen from sell side for this year have all been way off the mark.

 

Being bearish, I need more moderation in place so I don't get married to a biased trade. Yes, my 'dumb and dumber' trade. Im watching index levels, from generally higher or lower, when rate cut is announced. that will factor big for me.

 

- i think higher levels means we will see ATH. right this is unlikely based on my biased view. but i prefer this direction. everyone will be happier.

 

- from lower levels, which is my current view, all bets are off. we are going to have lots is unhappy people except maybe for people looking to rebuild from ashes.

 

don't know how to post pics here, so all musing to myself is text based. kind of like back to the 80s on my VAX green screen terminal.


Edited by punter, 17 August 2019 - 08:03 AM.

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#82 punter

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 08:55 AM

first weekend of peace, no riots, after a long while, hopefully it will last. apparently, foreign funding dried up. if i known it will last so long, I should have signed up. heard they are getting paid up usd 1000 for each appearance. pretty good money on weekends since there is no trading. all i had to do is shout slogans and throw a rock.

 

maybe, we will get range bound trading for a while, as there will be not much news until the FED.


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#83 punter

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 11:29 AM

https://www.cnbc.com...-suppliers.html

 

another set up to get the chinese to turn up for photo op in US

 

my bias is simply more fake talks. If I am in the chinese delegation, i op for talks venue in disney land, im joking I prefer vegas.

 

notwithstanding, there will be bounce in chip stocks and asia on mon


Edited by punter, 17 August 2019 - 11:37 AM.

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#84 tradesurfer

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 02:07 PM

Market direction will be decided end of week with Jackson hole speeches

#85 punter

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 09:47 PM

Market direction will be decided end of week with Jackson hole speeches

 thks missed this. thinking this week is flat/range bound


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#86 punter

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Posted 18 August 2019 - 03:35 AM

more lunch time gossip. whispers among some white house watchers in my part of the world is that even navarro was against recent tariffs, and didnt agree with Trump. it was a lone decision unlike what was generally reported. why the rush decision to bang the chinese and then rush to withdraw?

 

i say something is coming. something big. i am watching how vix tests the uptrend line from july bottom very closely in the coming weeks. 

 

caveat emptor, this is musing after lunch time gossip.


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#87 punter

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Posted 18 August 2019 - 04:46 AM

amending my previous bearish projection. dow jun low test pushed into nov period. looking for low in sept. fed rate cut to provide some limited boost.

 

previously i said june low broken by aug end. that was too aggressive.

 

still think we are in retrace mode now. 26300 is resistance. plan to close all my longs on monday. not sure asia time and us open. better not open anymore longs. thinking we crawl towards resistance at best.

 

gold should still be a good st short. don't expect 10 day to hold. waiting to close shorts monday


Edited by punter, 18 August 2019 - 04:54 AM.

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#88 punter

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Posted 18 August 2019 - 09:55 PM

 

open gold short 1509. targeting 1497 area. may happen today but I will be sleeping by then.

 

 

long sp punting 2900 test. maybe eod, mon morning asia or mon us open. going to bed... zzzz

 

 

-- gold short now paper loss. looking for gap down mon.

-- still have one hsbc contract paper loss. gap up mon london open

 

added to gold short 1513

 

 

 

closed that gold short from 1513, still keeping one. 


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#89 punter

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 01:06 AM

hang seng exceeded my own target of 500 points jump. so far only 1 thing is true; im my best fade. don't see more meaningful upside. waiting to be invalidated. good gap up in europe and us. set up for another round of shorts? waiting for the mother of all tweets still. its like a bad b grade movie being replayed again and again.


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#90 punter

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 01:53 AM

closed sp long, will close hsbc long london open. closed gold short, not sure if i get 1497 1500 test. never say no to profit.

 

waiting for st short 1 - 2 days. think asia down tomorrow. maybe long gold if i see 1500.

 

looking for hang seng to retrace to 25800


Edited by punter, 19 August 2019 - 01:58 AM.

Keep Calm and be Long

My opinion on markets, or anything, is a health hazard. Follow or fade at your own risk!