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Will the FED save the BULL? YES....but


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#11 dTraderB

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 05:46 AM

it seems that 300 points down,   Hongkong,  Argentina,  trade war.  all caused by the government

 

a spike down possible 

but always be alert for the FED move

 

30 years of trading has taught me some harsh lessons and I learned well that one must not fight the FED and Central Banks everywhere



#12 dTraderB

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 05:47 AM

Watch these:
 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its consumer price index for July. Expectations are for a 1.8% year-over-year rise, up from June’s 1.6%. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen jumping 2.1%, even with June’s number.

The National Federation of Independent Business reports its Small Business Optimism Index for July. Economists forecast a 105 reading, up from June’s 103.3.



#13 dTraderB

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 05:50 AM

From SA:

 

Going forward, we need two things if stocks have any hope of averting potentially hazardous VIX seasonality in a low liquidity environment.

First, we need a stable yuan, which means the Trump administration needs to cool it with the trade escalations and bombast, lest the PBoC should decide to start setting the fix weaker than expectations, effectively green-lighting more depreciation.

Second, the bond rally really needs to take a breather, because the message it's ostensibly sending about the global economy has now become so seemingly dour that the "bad news is good news" philosophy no longer applies. At this point, bad news is just bad news, so to the extent a gradual move higher in long-end yields would suggest that the "global recession" narrative may have overshot to the downside in the near term, that might help equities calm down. Of course, just about the last thing you want to see is a rapid surge in yields (i.e., a "tantrum") because with positioning as stretched as it is, a disorderly unwind of the bond trade has the potential to be highly destabilizing.

Remember, we've only got three weeks or so until the new tariffs are scheduled to go into effect, and after that, we'll get the September Fed and ECB meetings (and very possibly the announcement of an overhaul to China's two-track rates regime).

For the time being, you'll want to watch each evening for the yuan fix. As Stephen Innes, managing director for VM Markets in Singapore, told Bloomberg this week:

"The fix is the number one game in town and will continue to dictate the pace of play for risk assets over the near-term. Nothing else matters at this stage."

https://seekingalpha...cle/4284589-fix



#14 dTraderB

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 05:52 AM

More from SA:

 

Conclusion

Here is our discretionary market outlook:

  1. Long term: risk:reward is not bullish. In a most optimistic scenario, the bull market probably has 1 year left.
  2. Medium term (next 6-9 months): most market studies lean bullish.
  3. Short term (next 1-3 months) market studies are mixed.
  4. We focus on the medium-long term.
 

Goldman Sachs’ Bull/Bear Indicator demonstrates that risk:reward favors long term bears.

https://seekingalpha...shaped-recovery



#15 dTraderB

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 05:54 AM

Market seemed to be following the path I forecasted last week: down Friday & Monday and UP for rest of week. 

 

However, all this could come crashing down with a tweet or two

 

or melting up with an announcement or two



#16 dTraderB

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 05:55 AM

really bad there in HK

 

zerohedge @zerohedge
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Hong Kong Airport Cancels All Departing Flights For 2nd Day As Lam Warns Of "Death Of Rule Of Law"

 



#17 dTraderB

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 05:57 AM

what? then SPX 2200 will be hit in a few days!

If China cracks down on Hong Kong, Trump should extend his tariffs

 

https://www.washingt.../?noredirect=on



#18 dTraderB

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 05:58 AM

Fed Considers New Tool for a Downturn The countercyclical capital buffer would require banks to hold more capital should the economy show signs of overheating

https://www.wsj.com/...urn-11565614800



#19 dTraderB

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 07:42 AM

FED will get that 50bps cut ASAP, as well as QE

 

  1. Tariffs starting to hit prices

  2. CPI 1.8%, Exp. 1.7%, 1.6%

    CPI Core 2.2%, Exp. 2.1%, Last 2.1%

     

    Oops

 



#20 dTraderB

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 07:43 AM

Market "wants" to go up

Does not mean it will actually go up but when there is such a strong desire to go up then it happens

 

Spiked down possible but unless SPX closes below 2830/40 the ST bottom is on place