Member
Posted 14 August 2019 - 07:38 AM
We've never faced a recession with so much debt and so little Fed ammunition available and with negative rates still in effect in many places There's no playbook for this. Historic data will be of little use.
4:45 AM - 14 Aug 2019
Loved Art Cashins comment last week!! "It really is different this time because we've never been here before"!!
Member
Posted 14 August 2019 - 07:40 AM
Was wondering by the rally yesterday has fizzled and turned South, this may help:
Secretary Ross confirms on @CNBC that the Administration didn't get any concessions in return for delaying some of the September 1st tariffs. He said the move was explicitly about not taking any chances on the Christmas shopping season. It wasn't a "quid pro quo" said Ross.
Member
Posted 14 August 2019 - 08:14 AM
The amount of negative yielding CORPORATE bonds outstanding just topped $1T. This is up from just $20 BILLION in mid-January and a double from mid-July.
Member
Member
Posted 14 August 2019 - 08:45 AM
Crazy contra trade but I am going to buy a few ETFs
XLF top of list
and then others.
Gradually scaling in
I have been in almost 100 % cash in our LT portfolios since liquidating in April/May so I need to start using some of that
The logic here is there will be a huge rally into Sep FED meeting and maybe towards end of Sep so I want to try to takc on 2 or 3% to the reutn for 2019, o far.
Edited by dTraderB, 14 August 2019 - 08:46 AM.
Member
Posted 14 August 2019 - 09:15 AM
Bought 5 QQQ NOV calls
Let's invert all the yield curves now and see what happens.
Member
Posted 14 August 2019 - 09:53 AM
Jeez, if someone were deliberately yanking the markets they could not have done as perfectly as this!
Yesterday, melt-up on tariff delay.
Today, different picture ... not so rosy
I am spending too much time in front of the QQQ and SPY options screen,....
yesterday was yesterday, rally time
then this today... selling time, so perfectly timed for SOME in the know
*NAVARRO SAYS SEVEN STRUCTURAL ISSUES REMAIN IN CHINA TALKS
Member
Posted 14 August 2019 - 10:01 AM
Outlook for the next few weeks:
The market is in an IT correction. SPX is in wave c down of Wave A down. Here are the possible lows for SPX:
2770 - 38.2% retracement from the ATH 3029 to the 2018 Dec. low
2688 - 50% retracement from the ATH 3029 to the 2018 Dec. low
2610 - 61.8% retracement from the ATH 3029 to the 2018 Dec. low
2348 - 100% retracement from the ATH 3029 to the 2018 Dec. low
Member
Posted 14 August 2019 - 10:16 AM
added 2 more QQQ calls.
limit orders placed for more calls and also XLF LONG
could be filled with XLF soon
Member
Posted 14 August 2019 - 11:35 AM
Never mind high S&P 500 skew, there is still cheap protection out there, Wall Street says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-14/wall-street-hunts-for-cheap-hedges-as-stock-turmoil-gets-worse … via @markets
