Jump to content



Photo

No FED help, as yet - SPX 2700 handle soon, then rally


  • Please log in to reply
26 replies to this topic

#1 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,693 posts

Posted 15 August 2019 - 05:28 AM

Fully rested after a hectic 3 days with another 2 volatile days left until vacation. 

 

No, Not any FED intervention as yet but below SPX 2800 it is possible

 

After this low, expect a rally - not smooth and straight up but back & fill with more volatile days ahead until start of September's FED meeting.

 

I do not see SPX lower than 2750 until October but anything can happen in this economic & political environment. 

China talking tough after the cave in tariffs:

Hu Xijin 胡锡进 Retweeted Donald J. Trump

President Trump hasn't linked trade talks with Hong Kong problem. It won't work even if he does so. Trade war has dragged on to now, the US has no more economic levers to pressure China. If Beijing determines to intervene, it won't worry about US sanctioning Hong Kong.

Hu Xijin 胡锡进 added,

Donald J. TrumpVerified account @realDonaldTrump
I know President Xi of China very well. He is a great leader who very much has the respect of his people. He is also a good man in a “tough business.” I have ZERO doubt that if President Xi wants to quickly and humanely solve the Hong Kong problem, he can do it. Personal meeting?
10:16 PM - 14 Aug 2019

 

 

 



#2 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,693 posts

Posted 15 August 2019 - 05:38 AM

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
FollowFollow @Schuldensuehner
More

Bond craze accelerates w/ Price of 100y Austria bond jumps >200. Has gained 74% ytd. Chart looks like dot-com-boom 2.0!

EB_pcW4XoAAYGcI.jpg
12:34 AM - 15 Aug 2019


#3 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,693 posts

Posted 15 August 2019 - 05:40 AM

Interesting comment below the chart:

 

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
FollowFollow @Schuldensuehner
More

Countdown to Catastrophe? Countdown to Post-Inversion Stock Catastrophe Can Be a Long Wait. Stocks have peaked anywhere from 2 months to 2 years after. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/countdown-catastrophe-yield-curve-means-142701075.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw 

EB_K6n1XYAA_acA.jpg
10:38 PM - 14 Aug 2019 
    1.  

      Why dont you make the same graph for 1982? The yield curve inverted 4 months before the start of the raging Bull market of the 1980s. SPX went from 100 to 330 in 5 years. Then went on from 1988 to 2000. statistical selection is poor here. You pick 2 worst bear markets!



#4 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,693 posts

Posted 15 August 2019 - 05:41 AM

Is a global recession knocking at the door? Don't think so but conditions are ideal for such a few months ahead. Central Banks still have time but will the politicians cooperate? 

 

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
FollowFollow @Schuldensuehner
More

Oops! US 30y yields drop below 2% for first time in history as bond mkts scream recession.

EB_LeGzXoAAfuFh.png
10:28 PM - 14 Aug 2019


#5 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,693 posts

Posted 15 August 2019 - 05:42 AM

SentimenTraderVerified account @sentimentrader
FollowFollow @sentimentrader
More

If the Arms Index (aka TRIN) holds above 2 (suggesting heavy liquidation) it will be the 2nd time in 3 days. When the S&P was above its 200-day avg at the time, it was 9/10 over the next 3 months. 2011 was kinda ugly.

EB8_lJxXkAYnVaw.png
12:12 PM - 14 Aug 2019


#6 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,693 posts

Posted 15 August 2019 - 05:43 AM

BloombergVerified account @business
FollowFollow @business
More

China says the U.S. violated a Xi-Trump consensus with new 10% tariffs — and it will respond with countermeasures



#7 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,693 posts

Posted 15 August 2019 - 05:44 AM

alrBF_dr_bigger.jpgBloombergVerified account @business
FollowFollow @business
More

European stocks decline and U.S. equity futures pare a gain as China pledges to take countermeasures against planned U.S. tariffs https://bloom.bg/305FB0a 

ECAFsyFX4AIU2Ec.jpg
2:37 AM - 15 Aug 2019


#8 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,693 posts

Posted 15 August 2019 - 05:48 AM

100-point plus NQ drop.

I am happy to extract 62 points from it.

 

Only half position, need more caffeine to ramp up to full position as market tries to stem the tariff tide. 

 

SPX 2780 seems possible today



#9 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,693 posts

Posted 15 August 2019 - 05:55 AM

are they reading my posts? 

I will be awake an hour earlier on Friday, 3am instead of 4am start today. Last trading day before my vacation in August

 

 

Someone's Betting Big on an S&P 500 Rebound as Sell-Off Worsens
Bloomberg-15 hours ago
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. have been advising investors to use call options to position for a U.S. equity rebound ...
Someone's Betting Big on an S&P 500 Rebound as Sell-Off Worsens
Bloomberg-15 hours ago
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. have been advising investors to use call options to position for a U.S. equity rebound ...


#10 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 16,693 posts

Posted 15 August 2019 - 05:58 AM

Ramp Capital  ♿️ @RampCapitalLLC
FollowFollow @RampCapitalLLC
More

UPDATE: WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE

EB9PiVCXsAAg-55.jpg
1:21 PM - 14 Aug 2019