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New SPX highs in September? Do not fight the FED....


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 16 August 2019 - 06:01 AM

As foretasted yesterday, the bounce is on, and may last for some time on an IT basis. 

I am off on vacation from tomorrow, to rest and recuperate, ready for the final 4 months that could be extremely volatile.

 

My FF is for a generally up market until the end of September, with a few spikes down in August, even as low as SPX 2750 or lower, but the markets will be pricing in the big 50bps cut in Sep as well as full-fledged QE. 

In addition, Trump will finesse the Trade War with a minor deal that will be declared victory but that is politics and they all do that. 

So, with the above, the markets will melt-up until late September or early October, ad then collapse to test the December 2018 lows.

 

Expect SPX 3150 to 3200 highs then the drop.

 

Do not fight the FED and the power of politicians. 

 

I hold QQQ calls, XLF, and TLT short

 

Will add a few more calls and also a few bank & tech stocks to my LT portfolio but will close these by end of Sep or earlier. 

Of course, I will monitor the markets and trade accordingly. 
 

Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc
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My latest Chart In Focus article, "Equity Put/Call Volume Ratio’s 21-Day MA", is posted at https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/equity_put_call_volume_ratios_21-day_ma/ 

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7:14 AM - 15 Aug 2019

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 16 August 2019 - 06:03 AM

I may go long HK stocks....

that situation will be resolve soon, markets will zoom ahead

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
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Short Sellers battle Mainland Buyers in Hong Kong's stock market. Protests, trade war and a weaker yuan have dragged shares down as bears betting against Hong Kong equities BUT Mainland investors can't get enough of Hong Kong's sinking stocks. https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/china-hong-kong-sinking-stocks-190815100521270.html 

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10:18 PM - 15 Aug 2019


#3 dTraderB

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Posted 16 August 2019 - 06:04 AM

Still holding short TLT and may add more 

 

SentimenTraderVerified account @sentimentrader
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2nd-highest 10-day optimism in the history of TLT + potential reversal day = high risk. Crazier things have happened, including just the past week, so 1f937-200d-2642-fe0f.png

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12:30 PM - 15 Aug 2019


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 16 August 2019 - 06:05 AM

SentimenTraderVerified account @sentimentrader
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Around a third of our charts are showing pessimism, some of the most in 5 years.

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9:12 AM - 15 Aug 2019


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 16 August 2019 - 06:06 AM

Glad to be in good company

 

Douglas KassVerified account @DougKass
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In my analysis I explain why and what I am buying. My bearish brethren are up in arms. So be it. 'The Bull Market in Complacency' has morphed into fear and risk premium widened dramatically in the face of the sharp rate drop. More...

2:09 AM - 16 Aug 2019


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 16 August 2019 - 06:08 AM

I am ore of a trader than in investor even when I invest for our LT portfolio

 

Douglas KassVerified account @DougKass
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2:09 AM - 16 Aug 2019


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 16 August 2019 - 06:11 AM

Still, do not fight the FED and the guvment

 

zerohedge @zerohedge
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Liquidity drain underway. Keep eye on GC as Treasury soaks up $200BN in liquidity, more than caused the December crash

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7:24 PM - 15 Aug 2019


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 16 August 2019 - 06:12 AM

David Larew @ThinkTankCharts
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TRIN - extreme selling and shorting at the close, so this favors an up move at the open. That's all. Possible Bounce with the Positive RSI divergence. 2875 to 2880 SPX is where bears are lurking. After the open things could reverse.

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1:23 AM - 16 Aug 2019


#9 dTraderB

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Posted 16 August 2019 - 06:12 AM

Jeez, is this now a crowded trade? 

 

John Blame @watersfall9999
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Replying to @ThinkTankCharts

With opex behind I expect a nice bounce into the next fed meeting. Lower mortgage rates, low inflation, consumer strong, mortgage apps up, census hiring, trump has his own stimulus system now and can lower tarrifs on demand with China.

4:08 AM - 16 Aug 2019


#10 dTraderB

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Posted 16 August 2019 - 06:14 AM

Of course Q3 earnings forecasts will be lowered, and lowered, and lowered, so that actual earnings will be a beat. 

 

David Larew @ThinkTankCharts
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Yield Curve Narrative - It's different this time..... Those that ignore history are doomed to repeat it. So tear down statues, re-write history and you aren't doomed, eh???

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1:21 AM - 16 Aug 2019