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fear and greed.


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#1 trioderob

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 01:38 PM

fear and greed index at 23  - an extreme fear rating 

 

any type of  dovish comment by Fed on friday and markets rocket launch 



#2 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 06:42 PM

This pullback is probably a gift.


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#3 da_cheif

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 07:43 PM

This pullback is probably a gift.

normal post opex adjustment.....alllways shows up  the days after opex



#4 diogenes227

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 10:34 PM

fear and greed index at 23  - an extreme fear rating 

 

any type of  dovish comment by Fed on friday and markets rocket launch 

 

Can't disagree with that but must note Fear and Greed can go to single digits and today it turned down with the market so...tomorrow, like everyday, will tell a tale....

 


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#5 trioderob

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 11:46 AM

just as a flip side .....

 

Powell has always taken things  slow and has been behind the curve .... so there is a chance where the market runs up to Jackson Hole and then crashes as a .25 cut is promised - but a full blown rate cut cycle is ruled out 



#6 robo

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Posted 22 August 2019 - 06:18 PM

More

If the AAII survey = "sentiment", then sentiment over the past 3 weeks has been about as low as it ever gets. It has been this low during 81 other weeks over the past 30 years. The S&P rallied over the next 3 months after 77 of them.

ECkwgLPXkAMr71h.png

https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader


Edited by robo, 22 August 2019 - 06:18 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#7 da_cheif

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Posted 22 August 2019 - 08:27 PM

 

More

If the AAII survey = "sentiment", then sentiment over the past 3 weeks has been about as low as it ever gets. It has been this low during 81 other weeks over the past 30 years. The S&P rallied over the next 3 months after 77 of them.

ECkwgLPXkAMr71h.png

https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader

 

well   at least ur not blind



#8 trioderob

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Posted 23 August 2019 - 11:01 AM

and BINGO

 

just like I said  - no talk of an "easing cycle'  and down she goes - add a Trump tweet and you have a perfect storm 



#9 robo

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Posted 24 August 2019 - 03:04 PM

 

 

More

If the AAII survey = "sentiment", then sentiment over the past 3 weeks has been about as low as it ever gets. It has been this low during 81 other weeks over the past 30 years. The S&P rallied over the next 3 months after 77 of them.

ECkwgLPXkAMr71h.png

https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader

 

well   at least ur not blind

 

All the data I post or look over means nothing to my daily trend trading system Cheif. Look at the chart below ( when the index is above the 13 EMA - long, below cash) I Trade VXF at Vanguard and the trades are Free.... I can move in and out of that index whenever my system tells me too. Sure, I get a few whipsaws, but BT it for yourself and you can see how my returns will be far better then anyone that is doing a buy and hold method........  VST trading is much different.... There are times I wait or maybe buy a tad early based on a few other indicators from Sentiment Trader. However, they must be extremes.

 

Good Trading!

 

 

Look at the data on the chart for VXF.... because that's what I trade. It's about the same as the TSP S Fund....

 

Have a nice weekend and I'm glad Bulls and Bears can't fly since you are always watching the sky......

 

https://stockcharts....375&a=684168589

 

Try a BT on the  VXF monthly since you are a LT investor. It will out perform any buy and hold system, and the trades are free.  Trend traders don't ride down 20% moves like buy and hold folks do.


Edited by robo, 24 August 2019 - 03:14 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#10 robo

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Posted 24 August 2019 - 03:17 PM

Some trending trading comments for those that are interested. 

 

https://www.fibtimer...ommentaries.asp

 

Buy-And-Hold? 
It Works If You Have 40 Years Or So

In business schools, the buy-and-hold strategy is still viewed by the majority as the most viable investing strategy for the financial markets. 

It is hard to change old beliefs. I often wonder if those who teach such strategies have their own money invested according to their teachings. 

"Buy-And-Hold" In The Last 19 Years 

An investor buying the S&P 500 Index 19 years ago, would have endured two horrific bear markets. Both of which cut the major indexes by 50%. Twice!

Is this what you want?

 

Had you caught the major part of each bear market while in bear funds, and the major part of each bull market while in bull funds, you would be ahead over 600%.

This is what we did at Fibtimer and because we have been online since 1996, we have the realtime trading statistics to prove it. 

"Buy-And-Hold" In The 90s 

Most people invested using the buy-and-hold strategy in the 1990s, and as we all know, they lost a bundle when the dot-com bubble burst and the 2000-2002 bear market began with losses of 50% to 80%.

After several years, investors finally began to feel better about the financial markets when in 2007-2008 the major indexes took another 50% hit.

If stock prices are based on the fundamentals of the companies they represent, how could such losses occur?

 

https://www.fibtimer..._commentary.asp


Edited by robo, 24 August 2019 - 03:17 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore