So, as I understand nothing technical just gut feeling?
Gotcha
I shared my view in an earlier thread that we are in a phase where gold and sp have pretty good negative correlation. So since I don't think sp has topped, I pick the right point to short gold.
As for the actual technique to pick the right spot for gold relative top and bottom, I can try to spin u stories but I rather not waste your time. I have something with a little edge but I really can't share how its done, besides it is not a sure win. That's why I am a 'punter' and not qualified to sell my work or run a fund.
But good luck and returns!