977 replies to this topic

[gannman]

Oh if that turn I had Friday does not cause gld to go higher the next one is Oct 24 around 1 pm which would put in in the range of the low russ is looking for

[senorBS]

still think we have 5 up from 1459 to 1519 and this mornings decline under that count should soon end a wave 2 near 1492-1495.70 - we just double bottomed at Fridays low of 1495.70 so if bullish count is correct we should turn sharply higher soon, sustained decline below 1490 starts to decrease bullish odds IMO

 

Senor

[dharma]

still think we have 5 up from 1459 to 1519 and this mornings decline under that count should soon end a wave 2 near 1492-1495.70 - we just double bottomed at Fridays low of 1495.70 so if bullish count is correct we should turn sharply higher soon, sustained decline below 1490 starts to decrease bullish odds IMO

 

Senor

if i just look at the gold chart 2 things pop out at me

1 we just finished an A B C of course it could get more complex

2 there is a painted H&S top which may be nothing or could be real if we get below the neckline

i am very long term bullish the next month is the question

dharma

i stopped writing about the cots, its a whole study in and of itself. in bulls as open interest expands so do the commercials positions on the comex etc   so i have not studied the cots enough to know what i am talking about

all i know is the whole bull from 99/01 to 11 the commercials were pretty much short.

 

oh and 

https://www.armstron...inally-charged/

Edited by dharma, 07 October 2019 - 10:34 AM.

[gannman]

that 3 pm turn last friday was a top imho so i expect us to go down and at least test previous low fwiw

[dharma]

i spend a good deal of my time researching juniors. in a bull it can be very rewarding. the key is to have good experienced management ie folks who are not going to spend and waste money. then i think as the bull progress' location is going to be important . there are places i just will not put my money. i had such a bad experience in the bull of the 70s w/s.africa i will not put money into miners on that continent . eg james sinclair was very near the pulse of the gold market back then  and yet he invested in tanzania. he ran into problems w/the government  and almost lost the property. i ts  hard enough to get the direction of the market right and then to have to deal w/government nationalization , strikes, flooding etc its a nightmare

some of these juniors had lofty valuations back in 11 -12  recently i bought lgtdf @.31  today its at .72  in 11-12 it was 3.7 their management brought fronteer to market and it was bought out by newmont . so the same management team took over liberty gold

i have been watching them and took a stake. in bulls its usually less expensive for majors to take over a company then it is to do all the work to make it into a mine . the majors will have a takeover phase at some point in the bull  . when i have no idea. i have a stable of these juniors some will be duds and some will be 10x and more.  the base this stock has built since 16 w/a bowl formation can build a big tall structure  i mention some from time to time

 

gannman yesterday/today is the bradley i have another turn tomorrow and a larger one for the whole week not sure the market has shown its hand yet 

as you know its the beauty of buy and hold all the wiggles are nothing to fret over.  and as i said the other day, i believe in a year this level will be a distant memory

dharma

this will have 20k folks mad as hornets https://www.cbsnews....-u-s-employees/

Edited by dharma, 07 October 2019 - 02:12 PM.

[dougie]

Dust filled its 1 hour gap on volume today

[tradesurfer]

this recent near term decline in the metals seems like a decline based on "pushing on a string"   cumbersome and labored...

 

sort of like the declines we have seen in the stock market since 2009.... sideways and slow to work off overbought conditions... but now the tables seem to have turned... metals work sideways but stock market moves more heavily down

[crossd]

seasonal charts https://seasonalchar...ssics_gold.html

calling for a correction 

dharma

but look at the 4 yr election seasonal for gold...almost no correction now at all...

 

https://seasonalchar...reelection.html

 

donc

[senorBS]

this recent near term decline in the metals seems like a decline based on "pushing on a string"   cumbersome and labored...

 

sort of like the declines we have seen in the stock market since 2009.... sideways and slow to work off overbought conditions... but now the tables seem to have turned... metals work sideways but stock market moves more heavily down

eggxactly! 

 

Senor

[senorBS]

No excuses time as IMO we are set up for a strong upside acceleration with what I favor is 5 up from 1459 ABC bottom (from 1557 rally high) to recent 1519 top, another near term abc down overnight to a 1487 low and now a rally to 1508 early session high this morning looks like another possible shorter term 5 up and now a pullback to 1501 area, if bullish as it looks we should keep rallying strongly (and this short term pullback to 1501 area should end very soon) and soon take out 1519 and eventually head up to challenge the 1557 rally high. That's the bullish wave count to me, however any move down to anywhere close to last nights 1487 low would be something that has me exiting all or a good part of my long position - again its no excuses time IMO

 

Senor