21 replies to this topic

[Harapa]

Probability of a good size up move ...nearly 100%

[blustar]

I agree only Into Monday tho

[q4wer]

Probability of a good size up move ...nearly 100%

Have seen your chart many times before,  do you mind sharing how to read your work?  Did your chart tell you last week's down draft?   Thanks!

Edited by q4wer, 28 September 2019 - 12:03 PM.

[Harapa]

@q4wer

On this particular setup you look for zero line cross of "StdScore"** from below before going long VXX. More crosses mean more confidence in the setup. Additionally, Historical Volatility* < 12.5 is a good precursor to a bounce. A rising trend is also an indication of upcoming spike. "3.5% off Lowest Low" is just a way to show level of excursion from the preceding lowest value. VXX tends to hit a lowest low of past 13TD before spiking up for good.. 90% of the time ( a red indication). This is more clear on a hourly setup than on daily.

* Historical Volatility can be calculated in variety of ways, so don't be confused with the actual number as it may not match other sources. For example at Fidelity or Schwab platforms it is < 35.

 

This setup issued high confidence signal yesterday, though it has been hinting for several days (e.g. trend line, or BPSPX reporting lower highs).

 

Look at the trades I posted in another thread; on 9/25/26 I was playing with the upside (in SPY) and yesterday with the down side.

 

**a cross of mid line of %B (20,2) is a good surrogate of this indicator. It is shown on the lowest panel as an overlay.

Edited by Harapa, 28 September 2019 - 01:04 PM.

[Harapa]

I appended intraday version to highlight comments made above. This setup is not meant to spot the exact bottom. If you know something can, please share. Also trading VXX and its cousins is very dangerous to your health and wealth.

Edited by Harapa, 28 September 2019 - 01:43 PM.

[relax]

Any ideas for monday Harapa..Will you be looking to short any gap up?
Interesting how deep nymo goes on this move...

[Harapa]

I am a trend follower, will check in on Mon AM. With these setups in sell mode, making money is easier on the downside.

[q4wer]

Thanks Harapa!

[blustar]

I expect counter trend y of B rally to near 2884 Monday then comes C the capitulation wave in to October 2. Im thinking the three gaps play down below spx 2887. The xyz pattern is very bullish so Im thinking Oct 2 to 9 2886 to 3054/55

[tradesurfer]

Hey Harapa what do you think about this weekly nasdaq comparison chart? is it too aggressive ?