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Lots of Bears, But...


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#11 blustar

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Posted 01 October 2019 - 09:37 AM

Chief, you sound like a broken record! Really, the market is richly overvalued here.  Do I think we have made THE top here? No, I don't think so, but still...


Blessings,

 

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#12 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 01 October 2019 - 10:37 AM

Given how low interest rates are (and that should be a part of any serious analysis of valuation), I don't think this market is "grossly overvalued" at all. In fact, given the slope of earnings, it could well be undervalued.
 

https://stockcharts....ndamentals.html

 

 


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#13 skott

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Posted 01 October 2019 - 12:52 PM

why are rates so low Mark? Why after 11 years of rising prices and full employment is it necessary to cut rates?
Why is one trillion $ being injected into the repo market? Banks are afraid to loan money to other banks for easy money?

#14 LMF

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Posted 01 October 2019 - 01:02 PM

Its simple......put the Fed rate below the 10 year treasury and live. Its simple. Again..... its simple. Review the historical data on what the Fed actually does. Ignore everything else about the Fed.

#15 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 01 October 2019 - 04:48 PM

why are rates so low Mark? Why after 11 years of rising prices and full employment is it necessary to cut rates?
Why is one trillion $ being injected into the repo market? Banks are afraid to loan money to other banks for easy money?

 

The market isn't worried about inflation. That should be obvious. The Commercial Paper is telling us, LOUDLY, that indeed, nobody is at all worried about lending money to the financial sector (currently charging a 7 bp premium for 3 month paper).

 

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#16 skott

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Posted 01 October 2019 - 05:16 PM

thnx but you didn't answer any of my questions. Banks are afraid to loan to each other. Canary in the coal mine. Plus my other quesions. Everyone is actually bullish. The sentiment poll you showed yesterday shows that those pollees are usually correct in their view.



#17 opinionated

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Posted 01 October 2019 - 06:33 PM

thnx but you didn't answer any of my questions. Banks are afraid to loan to each other. Canary in the coal mine. Plus my other quesions. Everyone is actually bullish. The sentiment poll you showed yesterday shows that those pollees are usually correct in their view.

 

You asked this, and debated a few days ago,  Most are not bullish,  At All......  In fact just the opposite.  I expect chap around here until the 6th and tag around 2910 then back to the top we go.



#18 opinionated

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Posted 01 October 2019 - 06:38 PM

 

http://schrts.co/vSQZpfbh
 

Uh, I run the survey (BTW, StockCharts has Bulls incorrectly at 25%). Zero is the correct number.

Weekly BULLS: 0%
Weekly BEARS: 73%

I'm your primary source on this. smile.png

 

 

Wall Street Sentiment Survey?  

 

3 bulls and 3 bears,  there is no less bulls than bears. 

 

 

There sure are a lot of Bears, in places.

FinTwit Poll: Out of 602 pollees, 20% were Fundamentally Bullish, 17% were Technically Bullish, 45% were Fundamentally Bearish, and 18% were Technically Bearish.

The Wall Street Sentiment Survey has no Bulls. At all.

TT Weekly Poll has 81% Bears. 

OTOH, Investor's Intel is VERY Bulled up with 55.10% Bulls and 16.80% Bears.

 

Maybe a shake out, and THEN off to the races?

 

 

 

This down turn shocked me,  Considering all the money the boyz are shelling out now. (Today) It was not about reported numbers I just don't believe that.  It is just odd that they let the majority be right.



#19 Harapa

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Posted 01 October 2019 - 06:55 PM

 

This down turn shocked me,

...you missed the message.


My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. All posted trades are fake (aka. paper) trades.


#20 skott

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Posted 01 October 2019 - 08:45 PM

I can guarantee the number of people long compared to those who are short is many multiples of those who are actually bearish to the point they have sold or have gone short. Ask all the folks with their 401k's if they are bullish or not. That is where most of the money is these days and with hedge funds, not individual traders.