20 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

SPX near the highs, good time to sound less dovish and try to pass on a rate cut; market and politicians will then throw tantrums, FED will wait until there is a 5% drop or more and then start cooing like doves.....

 

Premature Accumulation Pajama Microscalper‏ @MoMoBagholder

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Premature Accumulation Pajama Microscalper Retweeted David Larew

They have so little ammo left on the rate cut front, little visible nebenfit (diminishing marginal utility from such low levels), they’ll probably look at some other central planning technique of destruction instead

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David Larew @ThinkTankCharts

KC Fed head Esther George, no more rate cut...vote

7:10 AM - 18 Oct 2019

[dTraderB]

more FED talk

 

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Premature Accumulation Pajama Microscalper Retweeted Marc Eckelberry

One-track brains don’t like multiple risks occurring at the same time (China, brexit, Fed and economic uncertainty)? Could have fooled me, basically at all-time highs, pricing in no missteps, near perfection in outcomes.

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Marc Eckelberry @AheadoftheNews

Fed's Kaplan Says May Be Wise To Take More Time Before Deciding On Another Rate Cut -Dow Jones

7:44 AM - 18 Oct 2019

[dTraderB]

I still want to see a lower VIX and VXX before the big drop begins. Maybe a Friday afternoon OPEX rally to SPX 3020 will do it

 

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$VIX just has that look...the beatings have ended for now

9:13 AM - 18 Oct 2019

[dTraderB]

The normal OPEX VXX bleeding; added 2 lots VXX long, now holding 4 lots

 

Matt Thompson, CFA‏ @dynamicvol

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Here is $VXX YTD with $VIX expirations marked https://twitter.com/tradevolatility/status/1185233033923682304 …

10:17 AM - 18 Oct 2019

[K Wave]

NYA should be just done about futzing around with 13K....should get decisive directional move pretty soon..by Monday at the latest would be my guess at this point.

Edited by K Wave, 18 October 2019 - 01:12 PM.

[blustar]

My cycle work said 10/18-21 for a low then up into 10/25-28.

 

There is not much cycle room for a c of Z wave drop, it could be huge down futures Monday morning and its all over.

[skott]

what do you mean by "it's all over" ?  the downsife move would be over?  or it's the beginning of a huge crash and the end of the world as we know it?

[LMF]

Can the bears fill the SPX gap on the daily chart down to 2949......it'll take the rest of the month at this rate.  There was a huge dump in the Rydex ratio back on monday Oct 14, it went from 16 down to 7.76....contrarian bullish like it was December 2018.  And equity put/call above 0.90 on the 7th and 18th now.  Getting close on a bottom.....

Edited by LMF, 19 October 2019 - 11:28 AM.

[skott]

Could be a short term bottom and makes new highs barely and then the bottom drops out.
Sometimes it darkest before it gets really dark

[blustar]

Im thinking the downside is limited into Monday even early Tuesday a test of 2900 Monday and perhaps 2880/90 area Tuesday then up into October 28 3020s. Its over meaning the move down will be over quickly. I see no big crash here around 3% perhaps a little more to the downside in the early part of the week