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Posted 22 October 2019 - 04:08 AM
added one VXX LONG, 3 QQQ Puts, and daytraded NQ (mainly long) yesterday
Many are complaining of thin volume and the "chaos trades" emanating from PA (Political Analysis) and not TA or FA.
Senators ask SEC, FBI to probe Trump 'chaos trades'
https://www.marketwa...ades-2019-10-21
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Posted 22 October 2019 - 04:10 AM
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Posted 22 October 2019 - 04:11 AM
I switched to NQ long ago .....
Average daily trading volume in S&P 500 index SPX, +0.69% stocks over the previous 90 days has fallen toward a 10-year low, declining to 7% of total market capitalization during the three months ended Oct. 19, versus 21% average volume between 2010 and 2013.
FactSet“The numbers are astonishing,” Tim Quast, president of market analytics firm ModernIR told MarketWatch. “One potential risk is that there will be a lack of buyers during times of stress and that the absence of liquidity will lead to fire sales.”
Member
Posted 22 October 2019 - 04:21 AM
Basically, I am looking for stocks to rally into good earnings, FED meeting, "good" Trade talks propaganda, and then dive below SPX 2800 and lower.
This fr0m BARRON'S:
The consensus estimate is for earnings per share to have declined by 2.3% in the third quarter. If the remainder of the S&P 500 that has yet to report beats at the typical rate, EPS growth in the third quarter would come in at 0.5%, per Golub's math. Not impressive, but not an earnings recession either.
There's no guarantee that current trends will persist, however. The companies that kicked off earnings season this quarter were best set up to impress, wrote RBC Capital Markets head of U.S. equity strategy Lori Calvasina in a report today:
Reporting season has gotten off to a good start, as the sectors first out of the gate (financials, industrials) looked de-risked on valuation and earnings revisions. But we still think earnings could contribute to choppiness in the U.S. equity market in the months ahead since some of the sectors set to report later on in reporting season (consumer discretionary, technology), don’t have the same favorable set up and, broadly, 2020 estimates still seem too high.
Those 2020 estimates come into play when companies give guidance or when management speaks about their outlook beyond the end of this year. The consensus estimate is for EPS growth of 9.8% next year. But with a slowing economy, risks on trade-war and political fronts, and no more easy gains from corporate-tax reductions likely, such reacceleration would be quite a feat.
Edited by dTraderB, 22 October 2019 - 04:21 AM.
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Posted 22 October 2019 - 04:23 AM
Cramer bearish? Next, da Chief will be bearish!
Jim Cramer warns that this bearish scenario in the S&P 500 is ‘on the table’
https://www.cnbc.com...-the-table.html
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Posted 22 October 2019 - 04:29 AM
NYHL indicator - generally a near term high yesterday. It can go higher, so don't be a one trick pony chartist.
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Posted 22 October 2019 - 04:30 AM
VIX must go lower to signal a ST or IT top, not there as yet
VIX - Hold short signal - good for stocks
Member
Posted 22 October 2019 - 04:31 AM
SPY Weekly - Weakly considering the up volume last week. 39 million shares traded yesterday, so the store is open and no one is buying at the highs. Buy high to sell higher, eh???
Member
Posted 22 October 2019 - 05:47 AM
The latest release of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey rose to a three-month high of 96, beat consensus expectations, and remains near record levels. Conversely, CEO confidence in the economy is near record lows.
Unfortunately, consumer confidence tends to crash as it catches up with what CEOs were already telling them.
Currently, the bottoming process, and potential turn higher, which signals a recession and bear market, appears to be in process.
https://seekingalpha...tRoadblock=true
https://seekingalpha...tRoadblock=true
