17 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

 

DOW 50000 by end of year if all it took to rally markets was pumping a trillion or two into the system

 

BTW, you are free to read or not read my posts and I will not be going back to dredge previous posts or extracts from those posts to try to "convince" you of anything 
 

Been here since the last century & will continue to post in this Great Forum that has withstood the asininity and arrogance of many. Thank you, Mark.

Yay!!  And love the morning posts, hint hint lol!!

 

 

LOL

 

Not much to say except the market is grinding higher but due for a pullback that can be retrace a few % or as much as 25% before the December/January rally kicks in. 

This from Tom:

A few weeks ago, I spent some time doing a Q4 market outlook for EarningsBeats.com members and I laid out the path to substantially higher prices. It's starting to happen and it's going to happen. I see 3200+ on the S&P 500 by December 31st and here's the pattern that gets me there:

I know many might think I'm crazy, but I would not be at all surprised to see the S&P 500 at 4000 in 2020. How's that for 20/20 vision? Ok, we'll have to wait a year to see if I need glasses. :-)

https://stockcharts....e-piece-79.html

[dTraderB]

From EWaver Ari: 

 

Summary

The market has remained in a trading range for over half a year now.

This trading range is causing much frustration, and many have begun to look appreciably higher again.

I still think it is reasonably probable we see a 30% correction in 2020 before the bull market resumes to our long term target of 3800+.

https://seekingalpha...s-bullish?ifp=0

[dTraderB]

BULLISH Jeff MIller. Maybe, but my take is this: after new highs markets will return to SPX 2700 and possibly lower.  

 

Final Thought

Fighting the negative headline flow is always a challenge for investors. Buying when others are fearful sounds great, but what if you are fearful yourself? A second challenge is identifying such times. I am often asked how sentiment can be negative with markets near record highs.

1. Sentiment should be evaluated by behavioral factors, not the current market level;
2. Market prices can reflect the crowded trades of fear stocks and momentum, leaving plenty of cheap sectors;
3. And most importantly, a bull market continually makes new highs. Fear is the fuel.
4. In the absence of fear, stock prices would be much higher – and it would be time for some selling.

David Templeton (HORAN) captures the concept nicely, reviewing several different sentiment indicators—put/call ratio, AAII sentiment, and equity fund flows. Here is one of the several helpful charts.

 

Barron’s cover story summarizes the negative attitudes of those in their regular “Big Money” poll. They see the market as over-valued, and fear a Democratic election victory – particularly Sen. Warren. Only 27% are bullish on stocks. “Respondents frequently cited trade policy as a lingering worry and damper on stock performance.” Here is the list of policy concerns:

 

https://seekingalpha...ectations?ifp=0

[dTraderB]

Douglas Kass‏Verified account @DougKass

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Douglas Kass Retweeted Kassy Meisel

Kassy: “If past history was all that is needed to play the game of money, the richest people would be librarians.” - Warren Buffett

Douglas Kass added,

Kassy Meisel @KassyMeisel

Replying to @DougKass @realDonaldTrump @hmeisler

seasonality is in force. this seasonal trade has worked 30 out of 40 years, 30 wins 3 losses 7 ties. avg return 2.4% even when factoring in the losses, so, be careful. better to short closer to Fri/Mon or on FOMC spike. 3100 SP very very doable right now

12:14 PM - 28 Oct 2019

 

[dTraderB]

SentimenTrader‏Verified account @sentimentrader

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How's this for perspective.... At the bottom of the market in 2002, 43% of "big money" investors in a Barron's survey were bullish. At the bottom in 2008, 59% were bullish. At the bottom in 2016, 38%. Now? Only 27% are.

6:57 AM - 28 Oct 2019

[dTraderB]

Hey, with this market marking time, why not catch up on my favorite Twitter feeds:

 

David Larew‏ @ThinkTankCharts

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Woo Hoo cruising. No volume, nothing but a market being massaged by the Fed.. Amazon warns, up again..... misses deal, rally LOL

12:20 PM - 28 Oct 2019

[da_cheif]

Typical TA means ---->Nothing<----  when they crank up QE....  and the world banks have all said they are ramping up into November....  

 

Advce...  Do a bit of research about massive QE and it's effects before you sleep on a short position.

>Typical TA means ---->Nothing<<     oh really?      snort

[da_cheif]

BULLISH Jeff MIller. Maybe, but my take is this: after new highs markets will return to SPX 2700 and possibly lower.  

 

Final Thought

Fighting the negative headline flow is always a challenge for investors. Buying when others are fearful sounds great, but what if you are fearful yourself? A second challenge is identifying such times. I am often asked how sentiment can be negative with markets near record highs.

1. Sentiment should be evaluated by behavioral factors, not the current market level;
2. Market prices can reflect the crowded trades of fear stocks and momentum, leaving plenty of cheap sectors;
3. And most importantly, a bull market continually makes new highs. Fear is the fuel.
4. In the absence of fear, stock prices would be much higher – and it would be time for some selling.

David Templeton (HORAN) captures the concept nicely, reviewing several different sentiment indicators—put/call ratio, AAII sentiment, and equity fund flows. Here is one of the several helpful charts.

 

Barron’s cover story summarizes the negative attitudes of those in their regular “Big Money” poll. They see the market as over-valued, and fear a Democratic election victory – particularly Sen. Warren. Only 27% are bullish on stocks. “Respondents frequently cited trade policy as a lingering worry and damper on stock performance.” Here is the list of policy concerns:

 

https://seekingalpha...xpectations?ifp

>Fighting the negative headline flow is always a challenge<    for some i suppose