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How Can You Argue With A Market At New Highs?


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 29 October 2019 - 05:34 AM

You Don't!  Trade with the markets ST and Short it IT.
Just pick your spot(s) and Short the hell out of a low-volume FED-massaged REPO-iduced rally that has not more than a week or so to run its course. It could collapse anytime, most likely after the FED announcement.

 

But do not trade SHORT unless you have the testicular fortitude, skill, and capital in reserve, to do so, and you have a plan that covers as many bases as possible. This is my grand opportunity to tack on an addition 5 to 10% on the 2019 return.

 

https://seekingalpha...tRoadblock=true

 

 

 

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 29 October 2019 - 05:35 AM

David Larew @ThinkTankCharts
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All Woo Hoo Charts are on a hold long signal and led by the QQQ and NASDAQ

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1:52 AM - 29 Oct 2019


#3 dTraderB

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Posted 29 October 2019 - 05:35 AM

David Larew @ThinkTankCharts
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NYAD - Breadth on a buy signal. If this turns, rally is over.

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1:46 AM - 29 Oct 2019


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 29 October 2019 - 05:37 AM

Margin Debt Is Declining. What This Means For The Bulls
 

Oct. 29, 2019 4:51 AM ET

Summary

Optimism about the "bull market" continuing is actually rather high, despite seemingly negative sentiment from headlines.

The problem is that "margin calls" generally happen all at once as falling asset prices impact all lenders simultaneously.

Investors can leverage their existing portfolios and increase buying power to participate in rising markets.

https://seekingalpha...tRoadblock=true



#5 da_cheif

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Posted 29 October 2019 - 05:37 AM

unbelievable



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 29 October 2019 - 05:43 AM

David Larew @ThinkTankCharts
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Inverted Put Call Index - Extreme Bullishness with the Breakout. Generally this is a contrarian signal - piling on if we reverse here with Bears.

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1:07 AM - 29 Oct 2019


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 29 October 2019 - 05:44 AM

David Larew @ThinkTankCharts
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NYHL and NYHGH indicators - needless to say they are high. So pay UP if you want "IN". The companies are missing, warning, and people are buying the miss, because there are no good deals left. Scratch and Dent sale, but paying top dollar for these "Great" companies, eh??

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12:38 AM - 29 Oct 2019


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 29 October 2019 - 05:49 AM

on the other hand, VOL is this imploding...

 

SqueezeMetrics @SqueezeMetrics
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S&P 500 Gamma Exposure (GEX) is high enough right now that our expectations of volatility across all time frames are below 10%. It's been a while since we've seen this. Will take some serious stuff from FOMC or The Donald to break the GEX floor.

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5:16 PM - 28 Oct 2019


#9 dTraderB

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Posted 29 October 2019 - 06:24 AM

what stress? 

 

The Fed may have to do more to calm the stress in the short-term lending market
KEY POINTS
  • The Fed is expected to discuss the recent stress in the short-term lending markets when it meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and Fed Chairman Powell will likely say the Fed is ready to do whatever it takes in his appearance after the meeting.
  • But the Fed is unlikely to have any long term solutions yet, although it has taken steps to increase liquidity and expand its balance sheet.
  • Analysts say the Fed may ultimately do more quantitative easing and provide a permanent market operations facility, but for now it is not likely to address banking regulations which some say are behind the problem.

https://www.cnbc.com...ing-market.html

PUBLISHED 39 MIN AGO

 



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 29 October 2019 - 06:29 AM

FED will attempt to sound as dovish as possible but not committing to future rate cuts. They may succeed.

 

From CNBC.com:

 

In addition to the cut, the Fed on Wednesday is expected to signal its intentions about future rate cuts. The market is pricing in a rate cut for this week, then a pause, followed by a rate cut for next year.

But many economists do not expect the Fed to keep on cutting, as some market pros expect it to. There is no new economic or interest rate forecast from the Fed, so its communications will be limited to the post-meeting statement and comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at his press briefing.

“From our point of view, you’re likely to get a sell-off based on a Fed disappointment,” said Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at BTIG. He said fed funds futures are signaling a 50% chance for a rate cut by March, but many economists, like those at Goldman Sachs, expect this Fed cut to be the final one and it could signal it’s finished.

Emanuel said he expects the Fed to cut a quarter point, but then back off promising any more cuts, though it may keep the door open just slightly. “We think the market has discounted a lot of positive news, and it’s likely to be shocked by this now,” he said.

Emanuel said a sell-off could take the S&P back down to the 2,875 level. The benchmark traded as high as 3044.12 on Monday.

“There’s the potential for the market to pull into the 200-day moving average in the next couple of weeks, if the market is sufficiently spooked by the Fed,” he said. The 200-day moving average was at 2,877 Monday.

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Emanuel said that the downside will be limited because of the Fed’s commitment to keep liquidity in the markets. Following the spike in repo rates, the Fed has taken action to keep the money markets swimming in cash, by expanding the size of its open market operations and also to increase its balance sheet by adding Treasury bills to its holdings.

The repo market is literally the basic plumbing of the financial markets. It’s where banks go to fund themselves short term, and the concern is any stress in that market could filter through to other corners of the credit market. Analysts say the recent problems in the market were most likely a cash crunch, not a deeper problem, and the Fed has helped by expanding the size of its overnight repo operations and created long-term facilities.

Even so, disappointment about Fed commentary this week could spark a short term sell-off. Emanuel has a target of 3,000 on the S&P for year-end, but he says his number could be too low. He expects the S&P 500 to head to 3,250 next year.

“There are still plenty of people who think there’s going to be a recession next year. They may all be underweight stocks, but the fact is if the Fed is going to talk down the likelihood of a rate cuts, those people are not going to be buyers of stocks. They’re going to be sellers,” he said.

 

https://www.cnbc.com...time-highs.html