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How Can You Argue With A Market At New Highs?


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#11 dTraderB

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Posted 29 October 2019 - 06:32 AM

UBS analyst warns:

 

“Every bear market of the past 50 years has witnessed an actual decline in S&P 500 forward earnings,” says lead strategist Francois Trahan, who lays out a deteriorating landscape in a note to clients.

He says the consensus year-on-year growth rate in S&P 500 forward earnings has dropped to a mere 1% from a peak of 23% in September 2018. And leading economic indicators, which forecast future activity and can offer clues on future earnings trends, also hint at more weakness ahead, as this chart shows:

 
MW-HU184_leis_u_20191029053701_NS.jpg?uu

“Ultimately, the most vulnerable macro backdrop for equities occurs when forward earnings growth turns negative as LEIs are trending downward (pushing [price-to-earnings] lower),” says Trahan, who offers another ominous chart:

MW-HU185_earnin_20191029054701_NS.jpg?uu

He also suggests investors do not count on the Fed throwing stocks a lifeline here because interest rates and equities are positively correlate d at present, which means if rates are lower stocks will follow, as was the reaction after the last two cuts.

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#12 dTraderB

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Posted 29 October 2019 - 06:33 AM

I will buy BEYOND MEAT stock but not as yet..... entry point lower 



#13 dTraderB

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Posted 29 October 2019 - 06:36 AM

NO, it is not!
No, there will not be a depression! 

Yes, there will be a shallow recession, SPX dropping to 2000 or near that level, and then back up again. CYCLES. 

 

The U.S. is like a banana republic and a depression could be on the way, warns money manager

#14 dTraderB

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Posted 29 October 2019 - 06:41 AM

Can POWELL pull of a smooth post-Fed press conference? 

 

That's the key question, not the rate cut.

 

"Recent comments from Fed officials suggest that most favor a wait-and-see approach after a third cut, with the usual caveats that monetary policy is not on a preset course but is data dependent; a preference for assessing the effects of past rate cuts before implementing additional ones; and a pledge to act as appropriate to sustain growth.

And of course, they must convey their message without doing anything to upset financial markets.

It has become standard operating procedure in recent decades for central banks to communicate policy intentions clearly so that financial markets can incorporate interest-rate expectations into market prices.

But there’s an inherent contradiction in that strategy as well, succinctly expressed by Former Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer at a conference in Hong Kong in 2013.

“You can’t expect the Fed to spell out what it’s going to do,” Fischer said. “Why? Because it doesn’t know.”

“We don’t know what we’ll be doing a year from now,” he said. “It’s a mistake to try and get too precise.”

That’s probably the best guidance a central banker could give. Just don’t expect any of them to adopt it anytime soon."

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#15 blustar

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Posted 29 October 2019 - 06:44 AM

I agree. Slightly below 2000 sometime in late 2020 or early 2021. No depression. The period between 2023/25 is more concerning to me. I see something like 2007/09 then. 1550 area. Could hit 3500 by 2023.

Blessings,

 

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#16 12SPX

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Posted 29 October 2019 - 08:01 AM

Such a mixture of technical indicators.  I like keeping it simple plain old stochastics and 40 years of watching the tape go by.  Markets being very resilient but at these moments of heaviness I get worried that if we don't see a small correction a big one is coming and no I don't mean crash just a bigger pullback.  Would be healthy to see a -1.5-2% pullback intraday here!



#17 dTraderB

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Posted 29 October 2019 - 09:52 AM

stress? what stress? markets ATH

 

1f1fa-1f1f8.png *MNUCHIN SAYS HE’S OPEN TO LOOSER BANK RULES TO EASE REPO STRESS - BBG

7:43 AM - 29 Oct 2019

 



#18 dTraderB

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Posted 29 October 2019 - 11:04 AM

miinor, this can be fixed easily with a tweet or two...

 

[RTRS] US Admin Official: Phase 1 Of US, China Trade Deal May Not Be Signed At Chile APEC Summit - Making Progress On US, China Trade Deal - Not Signing Deal In Chile Doesn’t Mean Talks Have Fallen Apart, Means More Time Is Needed

 



#19 12SPX

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Posted 29 October 2019 - 11:08 AM

miinor, this can be fixed easily with a tweet or two...

 

[RTRS] US Admin Official: Phase 1 Of US, China Trade Deal May Not Be Signed At Chile APEC Summit - Making Progress On US, China Trade Deal - Not Signing Deal In Chile Doesn’t Mean Talks Have Fallen Apart, Means More Time Is Needed

 

wow rocket science heh, I can't believe after the 100th change about the deal ever getting done that the market still reacts to it lol!!  



#20 dTraderB

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Posted 29 October 2019 - 12:07 PM

 

miinor, this can be fixed easily with a tweet or two...

 

[RTRS] US Admin Official: Phase 1 Of US, China Trade Deal May Not Be Signed At Chile APEC Summit - Making Progress On US, China Trade Deal - Not Signing Deal In Chile Doesn’t Mean Talks Have Fallen Apart, Means More Time Is Needed

 

wow rocket science heh, I can't believe after the 100th change about the deal ever getting done that the market still reacts to it lol!!  

 

 

Problem fixed! 

 

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