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I' ve been warned...


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#11 kssmibotm

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 11:44 AM

don' t get me wrong. I' m not listening to anyone other than myself when trading and I know what I' m doing when trading. But if someone you have come to know very well who has proven to be a good trader, sends you an alert of a 10% drop when everything you look at points up, don' t you ask yourself the reason why of this diverging opinion between yourself and the proven elliottist ? I don' t use Elliott and don' t believe it works, so that he might prove me I' m wrong.........or else Elliott is done for me forever.

 

You missed my point.  A good EW theorist would not commit to a bearish count that projects a 10% haircut until an impulsive wave down occurs.  If this EW guru is wrong, drop the guru, not EW Theory.


Edited by kssmibotm, 01 November 2019 - 11:44 AM.


People think the Holy Grail is something looked for but never found. In fact, it is something often found but rarely recognized.

#12 hhh

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 12:17 PM

I have a VST sell on the Spoos right now.



#13 andr99

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 02:05 PM

 

don' t get me wrong. I' m not listening to anyone other than myself when trading and I know what I' m doing when trading. But if someone you have come to know very well who has proven to be a good trader, sends you an alert of a 10% drop when everything you look at points up, don' t you ask yourself the reason why of this diverging opinion between yourself and the proven elliottist ? I don' t use Elliott and don' t believe it works, so that he might prove me I' m wrong.........or else Elliott is done for me forever.

 

You missed my point.  A good EW theorist would not commit to a bearish count that projects a 10% haircut until an impulsive wave down occurs.  If this EW guru is wrong, drop the guru, not EW Theory.

 

 

if I drop him, I drop the only Elliottist I know that makes some money


forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#14 cycletimer

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 10:30 PM

by a guru of Elliott's wave theory that a 10% drop in the spx is starting soon. I don' t believe it will, but this is the right occasion to demonstrate if that theory is worth something.....

I' ve known this guy for a long time and I can say he is a serious person. So definitely we are at a bifurcation point. I believe the spx will break up, he believes it will break down. If he is right I will have to re-consider Elliott, if he is wrong I will throw that theory into the wc for the n-th and last time.

I can’t argue with that. Here’s my problem with W Wave; get 20 E Wave Gurus in a room and show them an unlabeled chart. You’ll get 20 different wave counts and yet each time one has their turn up at the whiteboard, the other 19 say, “I could see that.”

That’s why I don’t put much faith in the theory. After all it’s only a theory....

#15 andr99

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Posted 02 November 2019 - 03:51 AM

 

by a guru of Elliott's wave theory that a 10% drop in the spx is starting soon. I don' t believe it will, but this is the right occasion to demonstrate if that theory is worth something.....

I' ve known this guy for a long time and I can say he is a serious person. So definitely we are at a bifurcation point. I believe the spx will break up, he believes it will break down. If he is right I will have to re-consider Elliott, if he is wrong I will throw that theory into the wc for the n-th and last time.

I can’t argue with that. Here’s my problem with W Wave; get 20 E Wave Gurus in a room and show them an unlabeled chart. You’ll get 20 different wave counts and yet each time one has their turn up at the whiteboard, the other 19 say, “I could see that.”

That’s why I don’t put much faith in the theory. After all it’s only a theory....

 

 

the same problem I have with that fake theory, which doesn' t mean the guru I told may be right...........maybe because he associates efficient indicators to his counts so that it's not the counts that work but the indicators 


forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#16 andr99

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Posted 02 November 2019 - 04:42 AM

......which doesn' t exclude the guru I told may be right.

 

 

I was on the phone while writing and posting so that I missed the right verb. The concept is clear in any case......I think. You guys are lucky. You have not to learn a language to make yourselves understood everywhere in the world. You have your own language which is universal   


forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#17 tsharp

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Posted 03 November 2019 - 08:39 AM

 

by a guru of Elliott's wave theory that a 10% drop in the spx is starting soon. I don' t believe it will, but this is the right occasion to demonstrate if that theory is worth something.....

 

I'm not an EW Rugu, but I've been on the same count - wave-(iv) - since January 2018... the problem for most, is not differentiating corrective from impulsive fractals... the US markets have been in a corrective fractal since January 2018... the target for wave-(x):(iv) is ~3290 in late December or early January 2020, then next year down in wave-(y):(iv) to probably the ~2750 range... then to the moon and probably SPX 8,000-10,000 by 2032.

 

SPX-D-11-1-19.jpg

 

 

AN EPIPHANY MOMENT... (from this morning's IG post)

I used to be a fairly regular contributor at on a trader's forum, but as more demands on my time have come, I've also had to be more selective in where I give my time, so haven't contributed there for quite a while, until last Friday....

The topic was Elliott Wave, and how frustrating it was to see the hundreds and thousands of interpretations... and I absolutely agree, and that was why I changed to fractal theory, as EW has kind of become a negative term in the technical analysis community...

I shared only one chart, and made the comment that my fractal count really hasn't changed significantly since my 4.9.16 forecast - then it hit me yesterday morning - if the December low marked a significant change in how much longer the bull market in the US equities markets will continue, then why is my fractal count off the WAVE-FOUR low still the same as before?

The December low marked a major inflection point, and a shift in my understanding of bull market/bear market cycles, yet I continued to keep the same fractal count as before that change... perhaps I needed more time to grasp the significance of the shift, perhaps I was being resistant to change (that's simple human nature), perhaps I was being proud... I don't know, but yesterday, I spent a lot of time in reflection and meditation on this matter, and decided I needed to address this matter and adjust my fractal count to reflect a fresh bull market cycle that is still in its early stages with another ten years to go....
 

This is the SPX weekly chart with my revised fractal count, showing the January 2018 high as the completion of Wave-1:FIVE, with Wave-2:FIVE in work since...

When you realize you're wrong. admit it, fix it, and move on - I was wrong, and there's still so much more life left in this bull market, though there will be corrections along the way, the next major bear market (2000-2009) is not for another decade.

 

 

SPX-W-11-1-19.jpg