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IT TOP: almost there! BEARS capitulating, FOMO frenzy....


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 03:08 PM

Maybe another 2 to 3% in a wild and frenzied short-covering finale, but the signs are there that the IT TOP 

is near. 

 

I have loaded on QQQ Jan and Feb Puts, bought VXX Calls today, added to long VXX positions, and today bought Feb SPY Puts. 
About 68% Short.
Maximum risk if all options and VXX goes to zero is about 75% of the profits so far in 2019.

 

Bring it on! 

 

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 03:09 PM

Major short covering yesterday & today, as well as FOMO frenzy as newbies and latecommers jumped into the market for fear of missing out.



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 03:25 PM

I like this chart

 

Kerberos007

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Kerberos007 Retweeted BrightramLLC

Wow. Great chart. Where do you get this chart? Very similar to ISEE Call-Put ratio for retail buy-to-open options only, excluding market maker & firm trades positions; which is a better gauge of the market sentiment Your chart illustrates this perfectly Where can I get this?

Kerberos007 added,

EITqzrNWkAAgshN.png
BrightramLLC @BrightramLLC
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11:34 AM - 1 Nov 2019 
  1. New conversation
    •  

      The Red line is the put/call ratio The Black line is the SPX price The red line showed clearly the OB and OS lvls & fear-greed lvls for pinpointing the exact top and bottom Now, the red line is at the bottom again, over-bought, and the black line is ready to go down Very nice More

    • I marked all the Over-Bought levels on the chart when the red line (Put/call ratio) at the bottom and almost always the black line (SPX price) at the top. Super accurate contrarian sentiment indicator for pinpointing the top and bottom in Indexes.

      EITw4vyW4AAbS-A.jpg
    •  


#4 csw2002

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 05:46 PM

IMHO, this chart has too short a history to gauge its usefulness. For example, what's missing is its behaviour in 2017. I have a few sentiment charts that I can claim that have perfectly timed top and bottom far more successfully than the above charts - but they didn't work well in the third quarter 2017. https://i.ibb.co/Byh...tesentiment.png https://i.ibb.co/7QtXYbh/cpce.png


Don't be a fool like me - How I lost $10K

#5 robo

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Posted 02 November 2019 - 07:57 PM

"Wow. Great chart."

 

Nice chart!

 

Using the data for only 2019 and a value under 75 ( currently 74) it had mixed results overall on my chart, but the odds for Monday being red are above average, 

 

I remain long VXF..... Day 16 of my long position....  ( 16 days using the closing price above the 10 DMA)

 

https://stockcharts....012&a=697262130


Edited by robo, 02 November 2019 - 08:00 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#6 robo

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Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:14 PM

I'm using other indicators to give odds for Monday being down..... However, the trend remains up for now, and one day does not make a trend.....


Edited by robo, 02 November 2019 - 08:15 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#7 Darris

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Posted 02 November 2019 - 09:28 PM

Number of SPX stocks within 0.5% of 52 week high 68 issues or 13.6% on Friday Nov 1st 2019

Number of SPX stocks within 0.5% of 52 week high 163 issues or 32.6% on Friday Jan 26th 2018

Good time to check on Lowery Metrics



#8 Waver

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Posted 03 November 2019 - 12:31 AM

The persistence of the markets have finally paid off to break above a 2 year consolidation
Tested the break out point; unlike previous tests.

And is even higher now

Different context today compared to Jan 2018.

Should be clear sailing after this past week.

#9 blustar

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Posted 03 November 2019 - 01:59 PM

I too see a down Monday to cover recent gap up. I see the IT high as Nov 13.

Blessings,

 

blu

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#10 dTraderB

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Posted 03 November 2019 - 05:35 PM

OKAY

 

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It's getting to be the best time of year for stocks, and the Dow could soon set a new high


Edited by dTraderB, 03 November 2019 - 05:36 PM.