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Last Night's Commentary


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#1 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 05:13 PM

This is what I sent out to subs this morning.

Conclusion
Last time, I said that while the market closed down, it was not below even the 8-period ema and that made it hard to get Bearish, especially with ST Momentum turning up. The problem for the market was that the OO Sell and FL/FS Sell were still working on the market. Then, on the Iran news, the market fell 54, making us wish we'd cheated a bit and sold without full confirmation. Upon reflection though, I thought it would be important to note that the decline was happening in GLOBEX, on the cheap, and might just be a gap-fill. I advised us all to stay cool and allow that things might not be that bad. This morning, we find that the market is now UP 5 after being up more. Guys, that's ST Bullish. This is a testament to the resilience of this stock market. It has to be exhausting for the Bears. I think that we could get a capitulation rally out of this, in fact, especially if we get a bit more good news. I am not forgetting the over-done nature of this market, but I have to respect both strength and the value of our discipline. I do suspect that this wild action will eventually exhaust more than just the Bears, and that soon enough, we'll get a proper correction. I'm just not going to bet on it right now.


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#2 blustar

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 09:18 PM

I think we are still about a week out from a meaningful top. Meanwhile a ST top seems inevitable Thursday to Monday low based on the cycle waves. Just one more rally after the dip.

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#3 trioderob

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 10:28 PM

China deal signing ..... but the rumor -  sell the news ???



#4 12SPX

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Posted 09 January 2020 - 08:45 AM

I think we are still about a week out from a meaningful top. Meanwhile a ST top seems inevitable Thursday to Monday low based on the cycle waves. Just one more rally after the dip.

So I take it the prediction given on Dec 27th "We are making a rising wedge that is unsustainable, still higher prices look feasible into Monday, even as high as 3262/63 SPX.  The next Bradley is due Jan 8 and by that date a 7.8% drop looks forthcoming.  I see down 20% into the equinox of March 20th." is reneged now?



#5 K Wave

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Posted 09 January 2020 - 09:57 AM

Watching Naz breadth here.....the big rally yesterday did not even turn McOsc positive.

 

Once I see declining issues start to surge, will likely look for short entry for a swing down.

 

RUT still acting terrible, and still below where I dumped it in late December...swoon.gif

 

IF today's up move holds with good breadth, then swing top may still be a bit down the road yet, but I suspect sharp swift decline in Qs not too far away...


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#6 12SPX

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Posted 09 January 2020 - 10:14 AM

Theres a lot of news about the similarity of the Fed's cash injection and repo purchases overnight that have corresponded with the markets movements the past couple months.  Next week I guess they are going to start draining the tank but of course could be changed if they  add more to repo's.  Nonetheless it is interesting as it is the FANG stocks holding the market together.....



#7 K Wave

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Posted 09 January 2020 - 12:41 PM

SOX...ooopsie...


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#8 K Wave

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Posted 09 January 2020 - 12:44 PM

Hourly close on SOX under 1860 should trigger hourly sell signal...


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#9 K Wave

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Posted 09 January 2020 - 12:48 PM

SOX getting the bounce attempt off 1860...IF/When it fails to hold...LOB


Edited by K Wave, 09 January 2020 - 12:48 PM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#10 blustar

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Posted 09 January 2020 - 12:51 PM

I changed my mind, I'm calling the IT top today!  Looking for a 12.8% drop by Jan 24


Blessings,

 

blu

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