9 replies to this topic

[tsharp]

On January 4, 2019, just after the SPX had fallen some 600-points, from the September 2018 highs of ~2950 to the December 2018 lows of ~2350, I forecast the SPX to push back upward to new all-time-highs (ATHs) within months - not years, if ever - as so many in the forecasting world were suggesting... and on 4.26.19, the SP500 fulfilled that forecast, setting a new all-time closing high…

On February 15, 2019, eleven months ago next week, even before my previous forecast had come to fruition, I could see the writing on the wall, and revised my forecast to include the SP500 pushing upward into year's end, with a target of ~3290...
 

 

 

 

Yesterday, 1.10.20, the SP500 hit an intraday peak of ~3283, coming only 7-points or .21% short of my target.  And while we should see one more upward push next week as President Trump signs the Phase-1 Trade Agreement with China, and my target may be reached or even slightly exceeded, I would call this forecast fulfilled.

 

 

 

 

What's next for the US equities markets, and the SP500 in particular? 2020 promises to be a year of challenge, as wave-y:2 takes back a good portion of 2019's gains... watching.

[Waver]

And you are calling the rally from last December thru this week wave 1?
You do have X on your chart. Where is wave 1 if the next correction is wave 2?

[tsharp]

Wave-1 was the 2018 high off the 2009 lows... and a large double zig zag corrective wave-2 has been in play since, and the next drop is wave-y:2 to complete.

 

We are in the beginning stages of another bull market cycle that will last through ~2032.

Edited by tsharp, 11 January 2020 - 10:26 AM.

[Waver]

Wave 2 back to December 2018 lows, like an irregular flat?

[tsharp]

Wave 2 back to December 2018 lows, like an irregular flat?

 

No, I see the lower channel UTL as the target, perhaps a bit lower, but my target is 2700-2750...  CAVEAT - the EU prolongs dealing with the fallout of the forced deflationary policy of negative interest rates... DB is one of the 20 largest banks in the world and about to collapse, if Lagarde allows that, we could see lower prices than my projection.

 

Edited by tsharp, 11 January 2020 - 10:44 AM.

[Waver]

Interesting
Thanks for the info

This rally out of the FOUR is huge, especially for only a 1

3s are supposed to dwarf a 1 normally. This market is going beyond the sky uh

[tsharp]

Interesting
Thanks for the info

This rally out of the FOUR is huge, especially for only a 1

3s are supposed to dwarf a 1 normally. This market is going beyond the sky uh

 

I have a wave-3 projection upwards to ~8800.

 

Edited by tsharp, 11 January 2020 - 11:55 AM.

[tsharp]

FWIW,  in my mind, EW needs to also fit within the real-world of cycles, and over the past 100-years, the US equities markets have had a fairly consistent bull market/bear market cycle... so UP into Armstrong's 2032 turn seems to be the best fit for both worlds. 

 

Here's a chart I published last month.

 

[nimblebear]

On January 4, 2019, just after the SPX had fallen some 600-points, from the September 2018 highs of ~2950 to the December 2018 lows of ~2350, I forecast the SPX to push back upward to new all-time-highs (ATHs) within months - not years, if ever - as so many in the forecasting world were suggesting... and on 4.26.19, the SP500 fulfilled that forecast, setting a new all-time closing high…

On February 15, 2019, eleven months ago next week, even before my previous forecast had come to fruition, I could see the writing on the wall, and revised my forecast to include the SP500 pushing upward into year's end, with a target of ~3290...
 

 

 

 

Yesterday, 1.10.20, the SP500 hit an intraday peak of ~3283, coming only 7-points or .21% short of my target.  And while we should see one more upward push next week as President Trump signs the Phase-1 Trade Agreement with China, and my target may be reached or even slightly exceeded, I would call this forecast fulfilled.

 

 

 

 

What's next for the US equities markets, and the SP500 in particular? 2020 promises to be a year of challenge, as wave-y:2 takes back a good portion of 2019's gains... watching.

It will all be gone and then some. Starting very soon. 

[Waver]

Nimblebear
You think this is the top from 2009? Or the top from December 2018?