3 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

My turn risk window system indicates that there is an elevated risk of a sharp turn up in the stock market trend or a sharp acceleration of the current very short term down trend which began Friday morning beginning sometime on Monday the 13th.  

 

Last week's Monday risk window saw a turn up in the cash DJIA index near the open, gaining a "sharp" 600 DOW points by Friday morning.  The DJIA futures, however, did make a lower low late Tuesday for a few hours, so I can't call that a clean shot, but also definitely not a miss.  The jury is still out on the Friday the 10th risk window turn call.  With the next risk window on Monday the 13th, at least I won't have long to wait to pass judgement.

 

Early next week the inflation data is released.  So far the farce that there's no inflation has been sticking.  At some point this blatant fib will become so obvious that no amount of pundit hand waving will be able to obscure the terrible truth.  Yes, Virginia there is and has been serious inflation.  To paraphrase Milton Friedman, to find it, you simply follow the excess money.  And where you ask has all the FED/Treasury printed money gone, not to Joe Sixpack. To a fairly large degree it has gone into the stock market and to a lesser degree into other high end toys and hideaways for the upper crust on the receiving end of all this largesse. For example, check out the price of a little pied-a-terre in the more buzzy areas of London, New York or Vail on your favorite real estate website to see where some of all that money has gone.  For the rest of it just peruse the price to earnings or even worse the price to sales ratios of your favorite stocks in Barron's this weekend.  In all probability it's probably not next week, but Katy better bar the door when the brilliant light of truth finally shines on this dark, hidden, fetid lie. 

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 11 January 2020 - 12:58 PM.

[Waver]

Douglas
Sure, all of that is probably true.
But even when people realize it, like you said, there still be lots of a liquidity to keep the markets pumping higher.

[12SPX]

My turn risk window system indicates that there is an elevated risk of a sharp turn up in the stock market trend or a sharp acceleration of the current very short term down trend which began Friday morning beginning sometime on Monday the 13th.  

 

Last week's Monday risk window saw a turn up in the cash DJIA index near the open, gaining a "sharp" 600 DOW points by Friday morning.  The DJIA futures, however, did make a lower low late Tuesday for a few hours, so I can't call that a clean shot, but also definitely not a miss.  The jury is still out on the Friday the 10th risk window turn call.  With the next risk window on Monday the 13th, at least I won't have long to wait to pass judgement.

 

Early next week the inflation data is released.  So far the farce that there's no inflation has been sticking.  At some point this blatant fib will become so obvious that no amount of pundit hand waving will be able to obscure the terrible truth.  Yes, Virginia there is and has been serious inflation.  To paraphrase Milton Friedman, to find it, you simply follow the excess money.  And where you ask has all the FED/Treasury printed money gone, not to Joe Sixpack. To a fairly large degree it has gone into the stock market and to a lesser degree into other high end toys and hideaways for the upper crust on the receiving end of all this largesse. For example, check out the price of a little pied-a-terre in the more buzzy areas of London, New York or Vail on your favorite real estate website to see where some of all that money has gone.  For the rest of it just peruse the price to earnings or even worse the price to sales ratios of your favorite stocks in Barron's this weekend.  In all probability it's probably not next week, but Katy better bar the door when the brilliant light of truth finally shines on this dark, hidden, fetid lie. 

 

Regards,

Douglas

Your absolutely right the market will either go up or down next week!!!  

[Douglas]

Waver, you are absolutely correct.  The FED pump appears to still be running full tilt, so any turn down will in all probability be met with a tsunami of liquidity.  It's only when the extent of the inflation is recognized that there might be a reaction of some consequence that the FED can't coral.   Until then, the sky is the limit for the market given their willingness to test or even break the zero interest rate boundary despite serious inflation in favoured assets.

 

12SPX, in a Turn Risk Window a sharp market reaction reversing the current trend is more likely than during a typical trading day.  If the reversal does not occur, an acceleration of the current trend may occur since traders keying off the turn indicators identified by the system are forced to cover their reversal bets when their stops are crossed.  If the move out of the risk window either up or down is not sharp and sustained, the window is considered a dud.  I track about 30 different types of events and indicators which have been good in the past at identifying market turns.  I call days with the highest coincident number of these Turn Risk Windows.  Turn Risk Windows don't always identify turns  since I can't possibly know or track all the risks, but it does work often enough to merit paying attention to when it gives a signal.  

 

Regards,

Douglas