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Turn Risk Window Next Week


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 18 January 2020 - 01:33 PM

According to my system, the day with the most risk for a turn this coming week is Tuesday, January 21st.  Since the DJIA has risen a sharp 500 or so points since the Monday the 13th risk window, I assume that turn will be down.  Given the market is now rising parabolically, there is also a risk of futher acceleration to the upside on Tuesday, but even the most ardent bulls have got to be getting a little nervous that the cash spiked Kool-Aid is working just a little too well.  With blue sky above and nothing but air below, it might just be time for one of those Wile E. Coyote moments early next week to cool the market fever.  Beep! Beep!

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 18 January 2020 - 01:36 PM.


#2 Rogerdodger

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Posted 18 January 2020 - 07:41 PM

As the Alicia Keys would say: "THIS GIRL IS ON FIRE"

 

But IF there was a seasonal pause we are here, at impeachment week, at least according to Mike Burk's January chart:

PS: Don't know what's happened to Mike Burk and his site. (Hope all is well.)

But I see that Mark Cuban follows him. So I am in good company.

 

 

January-S-P.jpg

 

Disclaimer: I have seen Mark's yacht moored in Miami, but I was unable to board it, what with security and such.

 

Screen_20Shot_202016-02-09_20at_201.34.5


Edited by Rogerdodger, 18 January 2020 - 07:48 PM.


#3 Chilidawgz

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Posted 18 January 2020 - 10:18 PM

Looks to be close

vix.jpg


Anything can happen...what's happening now?
No one can forecast the future. No one.
 
All stocks (ETF's) are BAD...unless they go up - William O'Neil
When The Time Comes To Buy or Sell, You Won't Want To - Walter Deemer
 
 

#4 Rogerdodger

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Posted 18 January 2020 - 11:11 PM

I guess Mike is ok. I found his latest take:

The Negatives

The market is overbought.

The Positives

Breadth is the strongest it has been in years.

"The high levels of the HL ratios imply higher prices before this cycle is over."

 

 

https://talkmarkets....020?post=247569


Edited by Rogerdodger, 18 January 2020 - 11:13 PM.


#5 Douglas

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Posted 19 January 2020 - 03:14 AM

In all likelihood I'm only seeing the risk of a brief pause that refreshes the bulls.  As long as the money pumpers have the music turned up loud, this party is going to keep on rockin' with DJ Jerome's favorite tune, Money for Nothing, blasting out of the speakers.  As Prince says, "Party like it's 1999!", but maybe buy a pack of Alka Seltzer for the morning after.

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 19 January 2020 - 03:21 AM.


#6 da_cheif

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Posted 19 January 2020 - 07:55 AM

russell 2000 alltime high was in sept 2018....mike missed that one



#7 Douglas

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Posted 19 January 2020 - 11:21 AM

In "real money", aka gold, I believe the all time high in the DJIA was something like 44 or 45 way back in 1999.  In FED funny money it's probably got a long way to go.  30,000, 50,000, 100,000 who knows what it's worth denominated in something that can be QE'd out of thin air.  

 

Regards,

Douglas 



#8 alexnewbee

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Posted 19 January 2020 - 12:40 PM

-


Edited by alexnewbee, 19 January 2020 - 12:48 PM.

"we do G.d's work" Lloyd Blankfein

#9 alexnewbee

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Posted 19 January 2020 - 12:58 PM

photo-2020-01-19-18-57-48.jpg

 

indeed


"we do G.d's work" Lloyd Blankfein

#10 Douglas

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Posted 19 January 2020 - 01:16 PM

Thanks, Alexnewbee.  You can see a high in 2018 corresponding to the one that Don mentioned, and you can also see the subsequent break of a long up trend line under the lows from 2011.  This chart denominated in the "barbaric relic" would appear to be negative until the down trend line over the declining tops since 2018 is broken to the upside.  

 

Regards,

Douglas