According to my system the days with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend are Tuesday and Wednesday the 18th and 19th of February.
Last week's gut and system turn dates were both hits with Monday's buy-the-dip turn up in the DJIA and Thursday's tepid turn down into Friday. The Valentine's Day massacre that I thought might happen never really materialized. My call on the Pound breaking down was also a dud. Instead the Pound strengthened. I'm not giving up on my negative call on the Pound just yet. I still think it's going lower fairly shortly with the exact timing just a bit unclear.
Since the current very short term trend is down, a turn in the risk window this coming week would be up and an acceleration would be down hard. I suppose even the lame turn down late last week may attract the buy-the-dippers on Tuesday when the cash market reopens, but just maybe the glaring disconnect between the economic impact of the flu bug and the stock market also might be about to be rectified with an acceleration down. I'm not prescient enough to know which is right, but my gut is saying down hard, but my gut has gotten two right in a row, so it's due for a bit of humbling, so I'm not putting any money on my tummy.
Regards,
Douglas
