30 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

So, I've been watching the data and Hubei is just such a mess and got badly blindsided on the front end, the data is not going to be very predictive for the rest of us. Obviously, with the caveats that we can't really trust the Chinese data, and even if we could, it probably wouldn't be accurately predictive of what we'll experience in the Western 1st world, it's looking better.

Right now, the death rate for completed cases in the 6 next largest infection rate (North of 900 cases) provinces, we have 34 deaths and 2820 recoveries. This is just shy of 1.2%. Not great but not as bad as it was. Also, children seem to be largely unaffected.

The elderly are getting hammered, though.

 

We have nowhere near enough data from outside China as yet to draw many conclusions.

 

Mark

[redfoliage2]

Whatever the death rate the fact is what is happening in China is having a negative impact on the economy and the supply chains.  Apple just sent a warning shot at the end of the reporting season.  I'd expect the negative impact will be reflected in the next earnings report for other companies since they are already done with the earnings reporting this time.  Then, let's see if another outbreak in other countries, such as in Japan.  The risk is this market has not been priced in what is happening in the world's 2nd economy but just staying at the over priced level thanks to the rigging by the manipulators...................

Edited by redfoliage2, 18 February 2020 - 04:23 PM.

[redfoliage2]

Whatever the death rate the fact is what is happening in China is having a negative impact on the economy and the supply chains.  Apple just sent a warning shot at the end of the reporting season.  I'd expect the negative impact will be reflected in the next earnings report for other companies since they are already done with the earnings reporting this time.  Then, let's see if another outbreak in other countries, such as in Japan.  The risk is this market has not been priced in what is happening in the world's 2nd economy but just staying at the over priced level thanks to the rigging by the manipulators...................

 

https://www.zerohedg...n-through-april

[pdx5]

https://twitter.com/...767689549361152

[OEXCHAOS]

Now 1.1%.

[skott]

the numbers I see are much higher. The death rate of closed cases is 11% not 1.1%   Total Closed cases = 19,047 deaths 2,130  89% recovered. Of the active cases 21% are in serious or critical condition.  I get my numbers here ___>  https://www.worldome...fo/coronavirus/

[K Wave]

Trannies may be starting to suggest worst of Corona is behind.....impressive action last few days, and a close over 11K today could usher in a massive launch off of Mutli-year base.

 

Let's see how rest of today plays out there, but right now, this opening move is possibly the liftoff point on multiple time frames.

 

A failure to push out over 11K, and a move back under 10,850 would be bad.

 

Key action dead ahead....

[skott]

for real world clues, not manipulated indices, look at the baltic dry index. Been cut by almost 2/3rds in the last year.

https://www.bloomber.../quote/BDIY:IND

[K Wave]

Pretty powerful opening hour on Trannies....methinks bulls may have finally taken the ball there and ready now to drive it down the field...

 

Meanwhile, tech weak...are we about to see a shift of some sort??

Edited by K Wave, 20 February 2020 - 10:32 AM.

[K Wave]

for real world clues, not manipulated indices, look at the baltic dry index. Been cut by almost 2/3rds in the last year.

https://www.bloomber.../quote/BDIY:IND

Look at the long term chart here.

https://tradingecono...ommodity/baltic

 

Pretty much nowhere to go but up from these levels....