30 replies to this topic

[skott]

SPCE has a market cap of 6.7  billion or it did before it's bubble started bursting. So all these greenie, do-good liars who say they want to save the planet also want to burn alot of fuel making wasted sub orbital trips. Mind you none have been made but yeah, let's give it a multi billion market cap. 

[skott]

one of these days the market will begin it's 2 years crash with a 20% correction and then a rebound. and so on and so on. ppl will finally say "hey I got some nice profits and I see them disappearing. I think I might need to sell so I can actually have some money"

[skott]

I just  hope everything does not absolutely implode when it really gets bad. they will pump and pump massively but it will ultimately fail. As a country and much of the world has lost all common sense and they think they can manipulate everything to achieve their own greedy desires. It will backfire massively the 1% will get their due one of these days.

[skott]

a broader and truer measure of the market health is the Russell 2000. it still has not exceeded it's high of august 2018!  I mean come on ppl. wake up. BTW did you know when the PE ratio is officially calculated for the Russell 2k they exclude companies that have no profits or negative earnings. Yeah, bet u didn't know that one. Look it up. how is that for a bald face deception of the public?  all to trick them into believing  this horse manure that everything is fine as long as the market is up.

Edited by skott, 20 February 2020 - 12:23 PM.

[skott]

perhaps a BIG correction is going to happen into tax time when money strains will peak. me thinks the repo market will pitch more fits

[skott]

Mark no offense to you, really. But those are some pie in the sky numbers you posted. I'm not finding anything that low and the fact that you basically admit that the Chinese are lying well, why use those numbers if that is where you are getting them plus even China's official lie doesn't look that good. 

 

I'll post more in a minute from Chris Vermuillen if I can find it. He has alot of sources and of course we've seen videos of empty manufacturing facilities in China. This virus is virulent.

 

 

as for the Stock Market :

 

Scott Minerd, the CIO of Guggenheim Investments, had a salient point:

“Yet as a major economic problem looms on the horizon, the cognitive disconnect between current asset prices and reality feels like the market equivalent of “peace for our time.” The average BBB bond yields just 2.9 percent. A recent 10-year BB-rated healthcare bond came to market at 3.5 percent and subsequently was increased in size from $1 billion to $1.7 billion due to excess demand.

For those investors who perceive the disconnect between risk assets which are priced for a rosy outcome and the reality of the looming risks to growth and earnings, any attempt to reduce risk leads to underperformance. It is a mind-numbing exercise for investors who see the cognitive dissonance. The frantic race to accumulate securities has cast price discovery to the side.

I have never in my career seen anything as crazy as what’s going on right now, this will eventually end badly.“

Of course, it will.

The only problem, as he notes, is that between now and then, there is a demand for performance regardless of the underlying risk. Or rather, there is a widely adopted belief the markets can never have a decline again as witnessed by an email I received last week:

“Why do you think there will ever be a correction when the central banks are never going to let credit contract. I see no corrections. Ever. When the US enters a recession, the reality is it will be the biggest buy signal yet. There is literally nowhere to go but up in this market.”

The lessons taught by previous bear markets are always forgotten during enduring bull markets which seem without end. The relearning of those lessons are always painful.

 

 

"

Edited by skott, 21 February 2020 - 07:12 PM.

[CLK]

I've never seen a 20% drop without the A/D line putting in weeks of divergence for whatever reason. 

Edited by CLK, 21 February 2020 - 02:20 PM.

[skott]

From Chris Vermeulen of Technical Traders, Ltd.   I am not a subscriber but get free emails.

 

As we continue to get more and more information related to the Coronavirus spreading across Asia and Europe, the one thing we really must consider is the longer-term possibility that major global economies may contract in some manner as the Chinese economy is currently doing. 

 

The news suggests over 700+ million people in China are quarantined.  This is a staggering number of people – nearly double the total population of the entire United States

[skott]

here is the link for the article.   car sales in China decline 21% in January alone.    if we use China's lies there could be 50 MILLION dead worldwide.

 

https://www.thetechn...a-crash-part-iv

Edited by skott, 21 February 2020 - 02:24 PM.

[CLK]

Yep, buy the dip into April when warm weather starts and collapse is priced in.

 

The Coronavirus won't last all year.

Edited by CLK, 21 February 2020 - 02:37 PM.