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Turn Risk Window for Next Week


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 22 February 2020 - 03:36 PM

According to my system the days with the highest risk of turn or acceleration of the current trend next week are Monday February 24th and to a lesser degree Wednesday February 26th.  The 24th signal is the highest in a while, so anything other than a sharp turn up or a slam down will be considered an abject failure.  Since the DJIA fell into the end of last week, the system's turn prediction for Monday would be up and the acceleration would be down hard.

 

In last week's Tuesday turn risk window the DJIA did turn up mid-morning, but it was a one day wonder reversing and turning back down the very next day in the Wednesday turn risk window.  Even though both days caught turns, I think I have to call these whipsaw risk windows duds, for sure the Tuesday one.  If the market accelerates down Monday the 24th, the Wednesday the 19th one might squeak by with a useful grade.

 

The Pound tried to turn down last week only to be forced back up towards that $1.3 resistance line.  My system is still forecasting lower Pound prices, but it sure is taking its sweet time getting there.  

 

Regards,

Douglas



#2 CLK

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Posted 22 February 2020 - 03:58 PM

I'm thinking Monday might be a big reversal, maybe Sunday open exhaustion gap down. Only because

they have started the last two weeks off with downside on Coronavirus news, everybody will expect it again.



#3 Douglas

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Posted 22 February 2020 - 05:37 PM

And don't forget the buy-the-dippers who surely must be chewing at the bit to load up the boat given two whole days in a row of selling, and don't forget the FED open mouth committee members who will be talking up stocks starting late Monday and more later in the week.  The only thing standing in the way of nirvana is a little bug so small that hundreds of millions can fit on the head of a pin.  Achoo!  Gesundheit!

 

Regards,

Douglas



#4 Douglas

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Posted 24 February 2020 - 08:15 AM

It appears that the Monday the 24th risk window has fully lived up to its name and it is of the somewhat rarer acceleration species.  This also edifies last week's Wednesday the 19th turn risk window.  It also puts a spotlight on the Wednesday the 26th risk window. This all begs the question where will the selling end.  Well, as I type the buy-the-dippers appear to have been rudely awakened from their slumber when the little sugar plum fairies turned into trolls with hammers pounding the market.  There is a bounce in the futures underway.  The close in the cash market today should be very, very telling now that the overnight marauders have had their say.

 

Regards,

Douglas 



#5 Rogerdodger

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Posted 25 February 2020 - 02:02 PM

Well deserved pat on the back!clapping.gif



#6 Douglas

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Posted 25 February 2020 - 05:11 PM

RD, love your new look.  Guess we'll all be sporting one of those soon if C-19 keeps rocking and rolling. 

 

Before I rest on my laurels, I need to see what the market does in Wednesday's risk window.  It's not nearly as strong as Monday's.  I'm hoping for another acceleration day down to give me some bargains, but I saw Kudlow on CNBC today, and I'm sure that as I type he's on the horn to the PPT telling them to crank up the super money pump to bounce this dead cat so a turn up is more likely. 

 

Regards, 

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 25 February 2020 - 05:13 PM.