70 replies to this topic

[K Wave]

Yesterday was the 4th biggest percentage up day on the Dow in history.

 

The 3 ahead all stalled out on the day after.

 

This one most closely resembles Oct 30, 1929, coming after a big decline off the top.

Stalled out the day after and then went to retest the lows, before launching a large multi- month rally.

 

We have one 90/10 in the books...if we go down from about here and then get another 90/10 up day, will likely be time to get back into intermediate bull mode.

 

In the mean time, on the watch for "sell the bill passing news", and then a move to a final low, where some things do not get close to the 18th panic low, and others exceed it it slightly.

Edited by K Wave, 25 March 2020 - 10:52 AM.

[Ticker]

Agreed.  To me the market is at very uninteresting level.  If we go down to prior lows I will buy some more.  Even more if we go to SP 1800.  If we go up to around 2700 I think it will be a good place to short.  Right here I have no conviction which way it will go.

[redfoliage2]

As long as VIX still stays at highs the market is not out of the woods and re-rest of lows is almost a sure thing...................

Edited by redfoliage2, 25 March 2020 - 11:27 AM.

[12SPX]

Yesterday was the 4th biggest percentage up day on the Dow in history.

 

The 3 ahead all stalled out on the day after.

 

This one most closely resembles Oct 30, 1929, coming after a big decline off the top.

Stalled out the day after and then went to retest the lows, before launching a large multi- month rally.

 

We have one 90/10 in the books...if we go down from about here and then get another 90/10 up day, will likely be time to get back into intermediate bull mode.

 

In the mean time, on the watch for "sell the bill passing news", and then a move to a final low, where some things do not get close to the 18th panic low, and others exceed it it slightly.

Wow are you ever old lol!!   

[dTraderB]

 

But first I must short a few of these cruise  and vacation stocks

 

after stimulus announcement will buy SPY puts

 

also individual techs stock PUTS

The market is likely having got the congress announcement built in the last two days.  Are you still waiting for the stimulus announcement to go short?  

 

 

YES, I think there are many waiting on the announcement and they will buy
Could be wrong but it is difficult for me to short after that BIG UP DAY.... market went down today and then strongly recovered so there are many buyers out there. But they could be all wrong. So, I enter and exit LONGS with 3 to 5 % gains and will short higher up. 
There could also be a CRUDE rally that is bullish for stocks. 

[Dex]

As long as VIX still stays at highs the market is not out of the woods and re-rest of lows is almost a sure thing...................

 

 

The catalyst will be if Trump doesn't lift the shelter in place, indicating it could be longer then expected problem.

[dTraderB]

As long as VIX still stays at highs the market is not out of the woods and re-rest of lows is almost a sure thing...................

note VXX has collapsed

[dTraderB]

Yesterday was the 4th biggest percentage up day on the Dow in history.

 

The 3 ahead all stalled out on the day after.

 

This one most closely resembles Oct 30, 1929, coming after a big decline off the top.

Stalled out the day after and then went to retest the lows, before launching a large multi- month rally.

 

We have one 90/10 in the books...if we go down from about here and then get another 90/10 up day, will likely be time to get back into intermediate bull mode.

 

In the mean time, on the watch for "sell the bill passing news", and then a move to a final low, where some things do not get close to the 18th panic low, and others exceed it it slightly.

SPX 2600 to 2700  - a wide range but that can be covered in an hour or two these days - seems to me to be the max of this rally. 

Many waiting on announcement and response so I will also do that. 

[K Wave]

 

As long as VIX still stays at highs the market is not out of the woods and re-rest of lows is almost a sure thing...................

 

 

The catalyst will be if Trump doesn't lift the shelter in place, indicating it could be longer then expected problem.

 

I have a real problem with the term shelter in place.

 

It implies that you should not leave your home, like there is a hurricane or something.

 

Probably the best thing you can do right now with spring on the way (already here where I live), is to get OUTSIDE, and get some exercise and let your body start cranking up Vitamin D, both of which can help your immune system a lot.

 

Siting inside in a cave worrying is not real conducive to good health, and yet I have a feeling that is exactly what many, if not most, are doing.

Edited by K Wave, 25 March 2020 - 11:51 AM.

[K Wave]

 

As long as VIX still stays at highs the market is not out of the woods and re-rest of lows is almost a sure thing...................

note VXX has collapsed

 

VXX trying to gain a foothold back above 1 min 900 right now...

 

IF it turns back up here shortly, could see sizable move back up for a bit.