70 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Watch RCL here...back below 42 now could signal this ramp in the Cruisers is about done for now....what a ramp it was though! 

want to short this and/or any other cruise stock, may top 3 cruise stocks

[dTraderB]

3X SOXS getting slaughtered...already back to Feb 20 levels

will buy SMH CALLS but not on this rally

maybe the next one from lower levels after Q1 earnings & forward guidance

[dTraderB]

 

 

 

As long as VIX still stays at highs the market is not out of the woods and re-rest of lows is almost a sure thing...................

note VXX has collapsed

 

VXX trying to gain a foothold back above 1 min 900 right now...

 

IF it turns back up here shortly, could see sizable move back up for a bit.

 

 

VXX is up almost 6% today .............

 

and, my friend, you do know what that means in an up market imply? 

Lots of people jumping in to the market and they may get a 5 to 10% up from here but as it gets nearer to SPX 2600/2700 it gets riskier

[dTraderB]

Michael Santoli

@michaelsantoli

 

The history of huge one-day rallies like yesterday's is clear and well-known: All occurred in deeply depressed markets, none marking an exact low. Bottoms as processes, with tests and head fakes, is the plausible base case. And the '08 script surely argues for near-term caution.

[Dex]

Saying the obvious ... how today closes will be very telling.

[dTraderB]

tic toc

 

@TicTocTick

 

Folks Be careful Don’t do stupid sh*t Let them pass the stimulation and see if we manage to trade below 2502 Any shorting above 2502 is inviting ur own sodomy
Trust me u won’t like it

1:16 PM · Mar 25, 2020·

[dTraderB]

Saying the obvious ... how today closes will be very telling.

got to close at or near high and don't lose all of it overnight to maintain bullish mode

[dTraderB]

waiting a bit here to see how it goes next 15 to 30 minutes

a drop here of about 2% into the final hour and then ramp up to daily high at 4pm would be the preferred path but if the bulls lose it and the big guns sell the market into the close then this ST rally has ended

[dTraderB]

From ART CASHIN

 

From Arthur

Good Morning….Dan from Arthur:

Most recessions occur on a rather slow basis. Most employers are reluctant to let key employees go lest they be scooped by competitors who are likely waiting out a slow developing recession.

This recession is different. It was caused by government fiat with layoffs forced in bars, restaurants, barber shops, cruise lines, airlines, etc. That is why we had one of the sharpest selloffs since 1929. The recovery package was obviously important and held the market together yesterday. It wasn't as clearly defined as had been hoped and there was some concern about Christmas tree aspects but it was clear from the beginning that both sides knew that something had to be done and that's what held the market together. This would be something everyone will watch. It has to get recertified by the Senate and probably will go back to the House. One or two rebels could stall things. That would be somewhat disruptive to the market.

Secondarily, while the package was supposed to help hasten a rebound, early indication from the stock market indicates that they do not believe the bounce back will have the same shape and manner and the same involvement of the small term business player. Note that the semi-conductors were among the first to turn last week and have managed to rally slightly more than the rest of the market. Same is true of things like the pharmaceuticals who were not necessarily in favor.

Traders will watch as the House and Senate grapple with finality on the bill. Testing of former levels will continue. So far the market continues to look as it is in that testing phase. We will watch to see if any pullback intensifies.

For now, it does look like a possible trading bottom may have been established and the test and retest phase will tell us a great deal more about where things go as well as any changes in leadership.

Yesterday was the strongest percentage rally since March of 1933 "shortly after FDR inauguration and just before he reopened the banks as I recall".

Arthur

[K Wave]

RCL continues to ride that 1 min 200 up....theoretically could make it all the way to 50, but I suspect it will fall short.

 

Once the 1 min 200 is finally breached, big swoop down likely to begin soon therafter..