4 replies to this topic

[dowdeva]

On Thursday and Friday, the 19th and the 20th, I  saw multiple blocks of 250K shares (and greater) purchased of the SPY at approximately 250, during which time the SPY was selling for 242-244. One of the blocks was  700K. The SPY rallied to 260 this week and then declined, back and forth, during which time I suppose these shares were dumped. I saw 5M shares alone sold between 3:30 and 4:00 this past Friday.

 

I didn't watch the tape much last week. To be frank, it bores me to tears. But yesterday again I clicked on times and sales once in a while and again kept seeing multiple big blocks purchased at 262. Two of these were for 2.5M and 5M shares, respectively.

 

Only one of the blocks I saw out of all of them spiked the price bar on my chart, from current price to the purchase price, in both of the weeks I watched-on Thursday the 19th my 1 min chart spiked from 243-244 to 262 for a millisecond.  'They must have seen me watching on my teeny webcam and hid the rest of the trades till the close.

 

 

Those huge buys of shares at 262+ are still outstanding, IMO and we go up this Monday or Tuesday.

Edited by dowdeva, 28 March 2020 - 09:21 PM.

[orange]

One more press up to exhaust the bulls short term. It's likely to create some bear divergences. At least, that's my plan. Right before the death rate in the United States his 1000 per day. Perfect for scary headlines. We also get unemployment next Friday. I don't think numbers will be see bad as they are lagging.

 

We are on track to at least match Italy. That equates to a minimum of 5000 deaths per day, and cities which aren't taking it seriously will be hit next.

[pdx5]

 

We are on track to at least match Italy. That equates to a minimum of 5000 deaths per day, and cities which aren't taking it seriously will be hit next.

Majority (80%+) of deaths are over age 70, with heart disease or COPD or high blood pressure or on chemo therapy or kidney disease or liver disease etc. Those people die in high numbers every year with or without covid-19. It seems an exaggeration to blame those deaths exclusively on covid-19. I would be more scared of covid-19 if it was killing all age groups and healthy people.

[kaiser soze]

On Thursday and Friday, the 19th and the 20th, I  saw multiple blocks of 250K shares (and greater) purchased of the SPY at approximately 250, during which time the SPY was selling for 242-244. One of the blocks was  700K. The SPY rallied to 260 this week and then declined, back and forth, during which time I suppose these shares were dumped. I saw 5M shares alone sold between 3:30 and 4:00 this past Friday.

 

I didn't watch the tape much last week. To be frank, it bores me to tears. But yesterday again I clicked on times and sales once in a while and again kept seeing multiple big blocks purchased at 262. Two of these were for 2.5M and 5M shares, respectively.

 

Only one of the blocks I saw out of all of them spiked the price bar on my chart, from current price to the purchase price, in both of the weeks I watched-on Thursday the 19th my 1 min chart spiked from 243-244 to 262 for a millisecond.  'They must have seen me watching on my teeny webcam and hid the rest of the trades till the close.

 

 

Those huge buys of shares at 262+ are still outstanding, IMO and we go up this Monday or Tuesday.

 

These block trades don't mean that much anymore, IMHO.  

 

I can easily envisage scenarios where the block trades you observed have bearish implications.  For instance, if a major Long-Short fund bought strong stocks this week on weakness and planned to sell short weak stocks next week on strength, these SPY block purchases provide a nice hedge against market risk.  Same bearish implication for purchases by a Short-biased fund planning a bear raid.  SPY purchase is also a good hedge for a fund looking to short high yield bonds.

 

It could also be a stat-arb fund merely ensuring ETF prices converged with the prices of the underlying stocks, in which case it would be neutral. 

 

And yes, it could also be straight up bullish like you suggested.  My point is merely that it is hard to tell given SPY is such a broad and liquid ETF where many different players and strategies are all jostling for minor or major advantages.  

Edited by kaiser soze, 28 March 2020 - 10:01 PM.

[dowdeva]

 

On Thursday and Friday, the 19th and the 20th, I  saw multiple blocks of 250K shares (and greater) purchased of the SPY at approximately 250, during which time the SPY was selling for 242-244. One of the blocks was  700K. The SPY rallied to 260 this week and then declined, back and forth, during which time I suppose these shares were dumped. I saw 5M shares alone sold between 3:30 and 4:00 this past Friday.

 

I didn't watch the tape much last week. To be frank, it bores me to tears. But yesterday again I clicked on times and sales once in a while and again kept seeing multiple big blocks purchased at 262. Two of these were for 2.5M and 5M shares, respectively.

 

Only one of the blocks I saw out of all of them spiked the price bar on my chart, from current price to the purchase price, in both of the weeks I watched-on Thursday the 19th my 1 min chart spiked from 243-244 to 262 for a millisecond.  'They must have seen me watching on my teeny webcam and hid the rest of the trades till the close.

 

 

Those huge buys of shares at 262+ are still outstanding, IMO and we go up this Monday or Tuesday.

 

These block trades don't mean that much anymore, IMHO.  

 

I can easily envisage scenarios where the block trades you observed have bearish implications.  For instance, if a major Long-Short fund bought strong stocks this week on weakness and planned to sell short weak stocks next week on strength, these SPY block purchases provide a nice hedge against market risk.  Same bearish implication for purchases by a Short-biased fund planning a bear raid.  SPY purchase is also a good hedge for a fund looking to short high yield bonds.

 

It could also be a stat-arb fund merely ensuring ETF prices converged with the prices of the underlying stocks, in which case it would be neutral. 

 

And yes, it could also be straight up bullish like you suggested.  My point is merely that it is hard to tell given SPY is such a broad and liquid ETF where many different players and strategies are all jostling for minor or major advantages.  

 

All these things you say are true. I just thought i would mention it because last week the SPY rallied to a price higher than the price at which the big blocks were purchased the week before.

 

And \ do you really think that all the hedge buying you mentioned would buy at 10 pts higher than the asking price? - I think they would be a little more careful and do a little more hiding of said blocks, breaking them down, fanning them out to different markets, etc.