14 replies to this topic

[andr99]

and how many think we' re going much lower ? 

[K Wave]

March 18 panic action was as bad as I remember seeing in Oct 1987.

 

I saw wholesale dumping of stocks, some were down 50% or more intraday.

 

Very decent chance that was essentially it.....at least for months to come anyway.

[tommyt]

You will get an even split

[flyers&divers]

The global economy and the collective ability or desire to invest has taken an ginormous hit which could be lasting so one should not be surprised to see lower markets specially in the seasonally weak fall period.

On the short term emotions have an outsize role. If one considered that all the conceivable bad news is is out (and now we are probably less sensitive to fresh bad news)

one would think we were in a some kind of unwinding phase until the market settles into a momentum equilibrium and  either cycles, seasonals or election related triggers will send it up or down.

 Because there is tension in the market (both sides are alert and participating) the indicators on the shorter term charts are clearer then usual for the time being.

 

Regards,

F&D

 

[cycletimer]

It’s not over and the bottom is NOT in.  This rally is nothing more than a bounce within a bear market and you’ll have several of these on the way down.  They’ll be violent and sharp (+20% in 3 days sharp!) and these are to be used to liquidate longs.  What isn’t being reported are the number of redemptions from mutual funds last week during the rally.

i still stand by the 1800-2000 level as bottom, probably in April, after Passover and/or Easter.  
There’s going to be an excellent shorting opportunity next week, though gains in outs will be limited because the VIX is high.  Had you purchased puts with the VIX below 20 you’d have made a fortune.  My good friend purchased puts in late February for $10, got cute and sold them for a double...., they went to $300!
I did same exact thing when I purchased 200 shares of APPL in my tiny IRA back in 1998 for $27/ share.  Sold them the following year for $50 and thought I was a genius, ended up foolish as those 200 shares would have grown to $3 million if I’d held them. 

[K Wave]

Key level to watch going forward is 1540-1550 level in SOX.

 

IF SOX blasts back above that level this week, AND manages to hang onto to it through the entire week, then bottom is likely in, and shorts likely to get smoked.

 

OTOH if we go straight down tomorrow, or say back up to 1600 and then violate that level afterwards, then a full retest of the lows or lower is possible.

 

My best guess is quite a bit of good news will start coming this week, and SOX will see around 1660 level by Wednesday, and be able to hold 1550 on a pullback after that.

 

If they start administering Dr. Z's protocol early on a widespread basis, death counts would likely start to drop off a cliff literally within days.

After that, case counts would be pretty much meaningless.

[gismeu]

Key level to watch going forward is 1540-1550 level in SOX.
 
IF SOX blasts back above that level this week, AND manages to hang onto to it through the entire week, then bottom is likely in, and shorts likely to get smoked.
 
OTOH if we go straight down tomorrow, or say back up to 1600 and then violate that level afterwards, then a full retest of the lows or lower is possible.
 
My best guess is quite a bit of good news will start coming this week, and SOX will see around 1660 level by Wednesday, and be able to hold 1550 on a pullback after that.
 
If they start administering Dr. Z's protocol early on a widespread basis, death counts would likely start to drop off a cliff literally within days.
After that, case counts would be pretty much meaningless.

Who or what is Dr. Z’s protocol please?

Thanks, gis

[andr99]

I did same exact thing when I purchased 200 shares of APPL in my tiny IRA back in 1998 for $27/ share.  Sold them the following year for $50 and thought I was a genius, ended up foolish as those 200 shares would have grown to $3 million if I’d held them. 

 

sorry for you my friend......I did something similar when I bought Ford shares at 1.5 $ and in two years they went to 19 $. Had I kept them I would have made a mountain of money, but unfortunately I sold them much before they topped 

[LMF]

I still like the 1475 area or higher on the SOX for a Friday close.....the cup handle breakout line going back to the 2000 top.  But there's a pretty big gap below current levels on the major averages, so we have to see how that works out.  There's also the thing called the Tuesday bull market that is raging in my opinion.....TQQQ is up about 48 percent from mid December, just based on Tuesday gains alone.  It's not all crystal clear on the bearish front.  Also techie CTXS at new ATHs the past 2 sessions.....

Edited by LMF, 29 March 2020 - 07:53 PM.

[Rich C]

I think we will go lower.  We had a rescue rally.  Earnings season starts next week and I don't think that will go well.  Earnings may be OK but the outlook will be poor or at best cloudy.  Many companies have already pulled forward guidance.  President has extended the social distancing guideline till April 30.  Q2 will be in the dumper, those earnings come out starting in early July.  I think there will be a lot of bad news to come out in April, May, June, July.  There could be some possible good news if the FDA trial on hydroxychloroquine proves effective in treating COVID19, or survivors plasma antibodies works to save the sickest patients.