10 replies to this topic

[diogenes227]

FROM THE LINK:

 

 

Six weeks ago on February 19th, the S&P 500 Index (SPX and its ETF, SPY) was at an all time high, and one month later on March20th it was slammed back into 2017.

 

It has since had a big bounce and is now trying to claw back into the price levels it was at in January of 2018.

 

 

There are a lot of people wishin’ and hopin” the bull will resume and maybe it will. But me thinks those proclaiming the recent bounce and celebrating a new bull market (six days old) are the same stock holders from the past three years hoping the market climbs enough to break them even and let them out.

 

For the discussion and the price level charft:

 

LOST AND STOLEN TIME

[pdx5]

• S&P 500
  2,490.44
  -94.15(-3.64%)
• Dow 30
  21,175.90
  -741.26(-3.38%)
• Nasdaq
  7,458.41
  -241.69(-3.14%)
• Russell 2000
  1,098.20
  -54.90(-4.76%)

[diogenes227]

I wonder - Did anyone sell anything on the bounce?

 

From the link:

 

 

If so, we may be closer to a bear-market bottom (six months or so) than the pattern in 2000 (which took about three years).

 

Regardless, the bounce, which could be spectacular, is not going to be a resumption of the bull underwater long-term holders are hoping for. More likely it’s going to be a bull to be slaughtered so severely by the next bear move no one, as despair sets in, will be looking to buy any stocks.

 

In despair is when a new bull market can be born.

 

[pdx5]

Good call Diogenese! I lucked out and made a partial buy at the exact bottom few days ago,

but I am a long term trader, so 3+ years and looking for a 30% profit. Looking to buy some more if DOW drops another 5%.

[gm_general]

To illustrate a theory, the MACD forms structures where degrees of freedom are opened up as numbers fall off the past end of the 26 and 12 EMAs - this can influence where and how much the SPX or other indexes can go now. What changed news wise in the last few days? Its all pretty terrible all the time. Yet I observe the 26 EMA started losing decent red candles and will continue to do so for a while. The MACD pattern if it shapes up like other similar cases will now necessitate a small drop in MACD with a large drop in the index, which is enabled by the numbers falling off the EMAs. This is usually forming a "W" in the index, where the equal or new low is followed by an up move that lasts longer than the retrace we just experienced. Time will tell of course.

[CLK]

Something is fundamentally wrong with this bull market, artificial advance on Fed manipulation. In 1918 there were 50 million deaths and the market only dropped 10%, and there was some lockdowns, not to this extent, but still this seems like 1929 instead.

[gm_general]

The death rate was as much as 10% in 1918 flu (YES they call it a FLU) as there was a (believed) mid process mutation that in Fall 1918 made it even deadlier. Yet still as the primary wave of death ramped up, the Dow actually went up and was up 10% for the year. What is wrong now? We are plugged in and have computers and we react instantly to everything. I think the level of news hysteria ramped up starting with the Challenger disaster - that was the point I first recall the news channels trying to outdo each other with nonstop event coverage. It works people up into a frenzy.

[slupert]

To illustrate a theory, the MACD forms structures where degrees of freedom are opened up as numbers fall off the past end of the 26 and 12 EMAs - this can influence where and how much the SPX or other indexes can go now. What changed news wise in the last few days? Its all pretty terrible all the time. Yet I observe the 26 EMA started losing decent red candles and will continue to do so for a while. The MACD pattern if it shapes up like other similar cases will now necessitate a small drop in MACD with a large drop in the index, which is enabled by the numbers falling off the EMAs. This is usually forming a "W" in the index, where the equal or new low is followed by an up move that lasts longer than the retrace we just experienced. Time will tell of course.

So how are these numbers distributed, normal distribution )bell curve), or is this a chi square. (Gamma) ? Just curious

[slupert]

 

To illustrate a theory, the MACD forms structures where degrees of freedom are opened up as numbers fall off the past end of the 26 and 12 EMAs - this can influence where and how much the SPX or other indexes can go now. What changed news wise in the last few days? Its all pretty terrible all the time. Yet I observe the 26 EMA started losing decent red candles and will continue to do so for a while. The MACD pattern if it shapes up like other similar cases will now necessitate a small drop in MACD with a large drop in the index, which is enabled by the numbers falling off the EMAs. This is usually forming a "W" in the index, where the equal or new low is followed by an up move that lasts longer than the retrace we just experienced. Time will tell of course.

So how are these numbers distributed, normal distribution )bell curve), or is this a chi square. (Gamma) ? Just curious

 

actually It would be normal a Gaussian distribution.

[slupert]

To illustrate a theory, the MACD forms structures where degrees of freedom are opened up as numbers fall off the past end of the 26 and 12 EMAs - this can influence where and how much the SPX or other indexes can go now. What changed news wise in the last few days? Its all pretty terrible all the time. Yet I observe the 26 EMA started losing decent red candles and will continue to do so for a while. The MACD pattern if it shapes up like other similar cases will now necessitate a small drop in MACD with a large drop in the index, which is enabled by the numbers falling off the EMAs. This is usually forming a "W" in the index, where the equal or new low is followed by an up move that lasts longer than the retrace we just experienced. Time will tell of course.

I like this, very nice, any mechanism you could use to predict a W bottom is definitely worth trying