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Such a high death rate from Covid-19


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#1 ryanoo

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Posted 02 April 2020 - 05:30 PM

Italy is 12%

UK, Netherlands, Spain, France are around 9%.

 

Why do these countries have such high death rate? 

They are countries with relatively high quality healthcare systems.



#2 K Wave

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Posted 02 April 2020 - 05:42 PM

As an example:

 

If you took the number of actual confirmed cases of the flu this season approx 242K from latest report.

 

Estimated deaths 24k to 62k from latest report.

 

So death rate would be anywhere from 10% to 25% on an apples to apples basis of deaths vs confirmed cases.


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#3 K Wave

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Posted 02 April 2020 - 05:45 PM

I do not know how many times I have to say this.

 

Actual infections are likely at least 100 times confirmed cases, and THAT estimate is what the final death rate % will be calculated upon.

 

So please stop freaking out about death rate as a percentage of confirmed cases.


Edited by K Wave, 02 April 2020 - 05:46 PM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#4 Ticker

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Posted 02 April 2020 - 06:26 PM

Right. The death rate is much lower than 1 percent most likely. It's the economic damage that is more of a concern.

#5 claire

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Posted 02 April 2020 - 06:45 PM

In NYC, currently there are 9 confirmed cases for every 1000 people in this population. Bear in mind that the hospitals are testing only those with severe symptoms who seem to need hospitalization such as those with breathing problems or those who have had close contact with someone who tested positive, with few of the latter group tested, including healthcare workers with symptoms who are possibly exposed every day. Everyone else with symptoms is told to stay at home and self-treat, and we don't know what it will look like at it's peak.

We won't know how typical this rate will be for the rest of the country until this has spread and peaked in many other places. We can't yet know what the incidence will be. Without this information, we can't know the death rate. It may be different here than other places since there are unknown factors that may influence the rate among different populations. Also, the virus has been mutating. It could be better or worse.

The only thing that is known is that extensive and early testing limits the spread. This is basic information that has been the first step for any epidemic or pandemic, and we still don't have the capacity to test even those with symptoms.



#6 K Wave

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Posted 02 April 2020 - 06:52 PM

In NYC, currently there are 9 confirmed cases for every 1000 people in this population. Bear in mind that the hospitals are testing only those with severe symptoms who seem to need hospitalization such as those with breathing problems or those who have had close contact with someone who tested positive, with few of the latter group tested, including healthcare workers with symptoms who are possibly exposed every day. Everyone else with symptoms is told to stay at home and self-treat, and we don't know what it will look like at it's peak.

We won't know how typical this rate will be for the rest of the country until this has spread and peaked in many other places. We can't yet know what the incidence will be. Without this information, we can't know the death rate. It may be different here than other places since there are unknown factors that may influence the rate among different populations. Also, the virus has been mutating. It could be better or worse.

The only thing that is known is that extensive and early testing limits the spread. This is basic information that has been the first step for any epidemic or pandemic, and we still don't have the capacity to test even those with symptoms.

Yes, with 92K already tested positive...put just a 100 multiplier on it, and you have half the state already with or on the way to antibodies.


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#7 CLK

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Posted 02 April 2020 - 06:59 PM

I think the difference with the flu is it's more spread out over the nation with no containment measures, it doesn't spread as easily and any one city or hospital is not inundated with patients like with Covid-19, and this is with everything locked down basically.

#8 pdx5

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Posted 02 April 2020 - 07:08 PM

Right. The death rate is much lower than 1 percent most likely. It's the economic damage that is more of a concern.

BINGO!


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#9 claire

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Posted 02 April 2020 - 07:40 PM

Another factor that needs consideration is that those with severe symptoms (and possibly some without severe symptoms) are left with permanent damage to their lungs that will have an impact on them for the rest of their lives.



#10 ryanoo

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Posted 02 April 2020 - 09:07 PM

I do not know how many times I have to say this.

 

Actual infections are likely at least 100 times confirmed cases, and THAT estimate is what the final death rate % will be calculated upon.

 

So please stop freaking out about death rate as a percentage of confirmed cases.

Until antibody test confirmed your wild conjecture, it is all in your imagination.

Unless you can bring some facts into your claim, you can rest.