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SELL all RALLIES until further notice...


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 03 April 2020 - 07:44 AM

Bear market rallies are vicious but you have to give it room to run and then sell. 

 

From now until the case curve flattens and bends  - sell all rallies

 

In LT Portfolio, gradually accumulate with a 1 to 2 year target objective

 

Will start buying SPY PUTS later today 

 

and possibly buy a few CRUDE PUTS if crude trades above 29 

 

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 03 April 2020 - 07:52 AM

My trade plan 4/3:
1. Only long for me above 2497, targets 2661
2. Only shorts for me below 2496, targets 2383


#3 dTraderB

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Posted 03 April 2020 - 07:54 AM

I agree, to a certain extent. This is a unique global epochal event, one has to see some visibility before committing:

 

Also, Buffett has historically averaged in to many investment positions - as I have been doing. He specifically says he couldn't care less about timing a bottom, he cant. And if Warren cant I suspect most cant. Warren's holding period is "forever" (his term) mine is not quite


#4 andr99

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Posted 03 April 2020 - 08:00 AM

dTraderB .....is it you on that twiitter account or is it anyone else that you look at ? 


forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 03 April 2020 - 08:01 AM

Market seem confused... a remarkably full period now, but expect down or up again in a minute or two; two horrible weekly job reports produced two big rallies, can a bad monthly NFM do the same? it can but not a formula to buy recklessly

 

On a #Bullish note...the #Feds #QE may finally be finding its way back into #Equities.
 

"The Fed's balance sheet for the week ending Wednesday increased by $586bn, which is about $30bn more than the entire QE2 operation which lasted about 8 months. Since March 4th it has risen by slightly over $1 trillion."

via http://RIAPRO.NET



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 03 April 2020 - 08:01 AM

Be careful with this chart. The spike in the % of 52-week lows occurs at the #initial bottom. In 2002 we retested lows. In 2008, we dropped 22% further in 2009. The current extreme is likely the initial low, with a retest, or new lows, still to come.


#7 linrom1

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Posted 03 April 2020 - 08:49 AM

Bear market rallies are vicious but you have to give it room to run and then sell. 

 


and possibly buy a few CRUDE PUTS if crude trades above 29 

 

 

Like the way you think about oil
 



#8 LMF

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Posted 03 April 2020 - 09:03 AM

VIX support on the bear case right now is about zero.....

#9 dTraderB

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Posted 03 April 2020 - 10:10 AM

VIX support on the bear case right now is about zero.....

 

My opinion -- usually VXX and related instruments suffer pre-weekend decay

 

but this is not a USUAL situation so who knows??



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 03 April 2020 - 10:12 AM

 

Bear market rallies are vicious but you have to give it room to run and then sell. 

 


and possibly buy a few CRUDE PUTS if crude trades above 29 

 

 

Like the way you think about oil
 

 

 

a bit unusual, I agree, but maybe all OPEC+ meeting rally is already priced in a 30 to 40% bounce (to about WTI $28 to 30) so unless OPECmeeting can produce something spectacular OIL will be sold on the news MOnday. Also, OIL demand is down so OPEC is now just one other factor in ST OIL PRICE